The pandemic has disproportionately affected workers in lower paid jobs. But while #employment is at least rebounding quickly in the lowest paid quintile, the recovery is lagging in the middle and second-lowest paid quintiles. #ausecon #ausretail @cfbirch

ANZ data: Australia's spending was solid at +5% y/y for wk to 17 Jan. But #spending in some areas was weaker due to movement restrictions. Spending in #Sydney was down 11% y/y, Travel/movement was down 13% y/y and #Brisbane was down 10% y/y Adelaide Timbrell David Plank #ausbiz

The Australian labour market still has gaps, but at a headline level it is coming back very strongly.

Blue Lens: From recovery to expansion - This economic cycle has matured quickly - The shift to ‘expansion’ is not just semantics - Much of the COVID-19 crisis is likely to be temporary. This implies monetary policy will be far too easy as post-COVID dawns. vimeo.com/515162790

Australia’s #vaccine rollout has begun with the plan to have all Australians vaccinated by the end of October, implying a faster than average pace compared to most countries. #ausecon Hayden Dimes

State final demand is back at or above pre-pandemic levels in all states and territories, bar NSW and Victoria #ausecon

The pandemic has exposed the unstable foundation of Australia's agriculture industry, which for years has been underpinned by the work of young, transient foreigners. nyti.ms/3qfOuAx

"If you're asking policy to try and tackle secular stagnation, you couldn't be asking any more from fiscal and monetary policy in Australia.” #Budget2021

ANZ’s #Stateometer index confirms that the economy has considerable momentum, with all states and territories accelerating in Q1. The Western Australian economy continues to outperform, but economic activity is above trend for all states and territories except Victoria. #ausecon

We now expect a 2.1% q/q rise in Australia's GDP for Q1, much higher than initial expectations. This would bring #GDP comfortably back above pre-pandemic levels. #ausecon Felicity Emmett Charlotte Heck-Parsch

We now expect the #RBA to tighten in two steps in H2 2023, to take the cash rate to 0.5% by end-2023, as the conditions it has set out for such a move are met: #inflation sustained above 2.0% and #wages growth above 3%. #ausecon David Plank Felicity Emmett

A huge thank you to our team for this incredible effort: the #1 bank in Australia for the sixth-year straight, in some of the most challenging conditions we’ve seen. I’m so proud of what we’ve been able to accomplish, for ourselves and for our customers.

ANZ data: Melbourne spending bounces back with a big lift in non-food retail. Physical access likely to be the limiting factor for spending, not consumer caution/economic scarring. Good sign for future, post-JobKeeper, lockdowns Adelaide Timbrell David Plank #ausbiz #retailnews

Everything you need to know about ANZ Australia’s 2021 full-year result in one place anz.co/3GsXA6x andrew cornell

ANZ data: The sharper-than-usual fall in dining & travel after Christmas/Boxing Day shows that the rapid spread of Omicron may be leading to cautious behaviour. NSW has been particularly impacted #ausbiz

ANZ data shows that diners are spooked, with much sharper decreases in post-Xmas dining spend compared with previous yrs. This is likely due to hospitality closures due to Omicron, lack of access to food delivery and caution about spending time in public. Adelaide Timbrell #ausbiz

AU: Resilience in consumer demand, continued strength in the labour market, and the reopening of international borders contributed to a strong outcome in the Q1 ANZ Stateometer. Registered ANZ Research subscribers can access the full report at ow.ly/1YNX50JbIt2 #ausecon

.ANZ Australia CEO @ElliottShayne says the acquisition of Suncorp Bank is an investment in ANZ’s Retail and Commercial operations, and the state of Queensland. LEARN MORE: anz.co/3IOrO5p andrew cornell ANZ Newsroom

As liquidity is drained from the system, financial market volatility will rise. And it's not just equities.

We expect Australia's 2022-23 Budget to estimate an underlying deficit of $35-40bn in 22-23, after a smaller deficit of $32bn in 21-22. Beyond 22-23, we expect structural expense pressures and a slowdown in economic growth to increase the deficit. Adelaide Timbrell Madeline Dunk