ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose despite an expected rate rise at the today's RBA meeting. Household inflation expectations rose to 5.5%, with petrol prices up, but overall inflation expectations seem well anchored. #ausecon Adelaide Timbrell Arindam Chakraborty

Given the RBA's hawkish rhetoric over the past two weeks and an uncomfortably high Q3 CPI (1.2% q/q for both headline and trimmed mean), we now expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bp in November to 4.35%. Thereafter we expect a hawkish extended pause. #ausecon

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence reached its highest since end of Feb, but is still weak. Confidence about personal finances has been key to the uptrend. #ausecon Adelaide Timbrell Arindam Chakraborty Roy Morgan

ANZ-observed Australian spending was down 10.4% y/y in the first 20 days of August. The pullback is being felt in the CBDs, with in-store spending down 12% y/y in the nation’s city centres. #ausecon Madeline Dunk Adelaide Timbrell

ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence fell 2.4pts, perhaps on AUD weakness. Household inflation expectations jumped to 5.5% from 5.2% the week before. #ausecon Adelaide Timbrell Arindam Chakraborty Roy Morgan

Yesterday I finished my last exam for my MS Economics from Purdue. Grateful to have been able to study at a US university from AU, where I can combine my knowledge of AU with an international perspective. I look forward to adding my new skills to my work.

linkedin.com/posts/adelaide…

The #Barbenheimmer frenzy lifted entertainment spending in Aus, making it the only segment to see annual growth. However, overall spending is down as consumers appear to hold back on discretionary spending - my colleagues Madeline Dunk & Adelaide Timbrell's ANZ_Research report.

The Reserve Bank's decision to keep the cash rate on hold for a second month in a row has been welcomed by borrowers.

We're joined by Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ Australia, for her reaction to the decision. #9News

#RBA on an extended pause with rates at 4.1% in our view. ANZ_Research

We downgraded our peak cash rate call to 4.1% off the back of dovish RBA rhetoric and weakening in our forward indicator of labour market momentum, among other factors.

This decision was published before the announcement that Bullock will replace Lowe as RBA Governor

Property industry concern on housing supply and affordability at record highs according to the June 2023 results of the ANZ/Property Council Survey.

afr.com/property/comme… Nick Lenaghan ANZ Australia

#anz #propertysurvey #HousingCrisis

I don’t think we’ve seen the last RBA hike of the cycle yet, though the statement today and the minutes in June were not hawkish.

All eyes on the RBA staff’s forecast in August as well as the quarterly CPI.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence fell ahead of the RBA meeting. The 4wk ave was the 2nd worst result in 30yrs. ‘Current’ and ‘future financial conditions’ remain weak as inflation expectations hit their highest 4wk ave for 2023. #ausecon Adelaide Timbrell Arindam Chakraborty

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 2.5% m/m in June, but is 47.5% higher than pre-pandemic levels. It will take time for the tightness in the labour market to ease. @MadelineDunk Callam Pickering @adelaidetimbrel Arindam Chakraborty

With all the data that has come out since the June RBA meeting we still think a July rise is the more likely outcome.
Softer monthly CPI but strong employment, resilient job ads, rapid unit labour cost growth & the unemployment rate ~1ppt below the RBA's est. of full employment.

The encouraging fall in the monthly CPI indicator hides a lot of stickiness in underlying inflation. The biggest monthly falls were in fuel and domestic holidays, which are among the most volatile series in the data.

Continued broad pullback in spending is a bad signal for Q2 consumption

Cash rate up to 4.1%. We at ANZ_Research forecast another 25bp hike by August.

Next step for the RBA will be to assess the trends in prices and unit labour costs against how rates & the fixed-rate roll-off impact household spending & overall activity.

Economist role open at ANZ Research
careers.anz.com/job/EconomistS…

ANZ-Roy Morgan Aus Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts. Average confidence for May 2023 (76.8) was the weakest calendar-month average since Dec 1990, as cost-of-living pressure continues to impact households. #ausecon Adelaide Timbrell Arindam Chakraborty Roy Morgan