Australians appear to have embraced working from home and staying home, with foot and road traffic sharply down. #ausecon #covid19 Hayden Dimes David Plank

ANZ Housing Search Index (HSI) suggests a fall in the level of #houseprices could come as early as this month. #ausecon Hayden Dimes Felicity Emmett

Australia's headline #inflation is expected to slow sharply in Q1, but core inflation is likely to hold up for now. #RBA policy is already positioned for the prospect of weak inflation later this year. #ausecon #auspol Hayden Dimes David Plank

ANZ Australian Macro Weekly: #RBA Governor flags an eventual review of the monetary policy implementation framework. Some early evidence that Melbourne's COVID-19 spike is impacting sentiment. #ausecon #auspol David Plank Hayden Dimes

Melbourne's COVID-19 spike has affected the movements of Victorians but elsewhere Australia's easing restrictions and virus containment have allowed restaurant activity to recover faster than is the case globally. #ausecon #ausretail Hayden Dimes

Australia is likely to experience another strong #trade surplus for June after preliminary data showed a strong rise in goods #exports as China’s demand continues to grow. #ausecon Hayden Dimes David Plank

Heard a few people suggest unemployment may start to accelerate again from July given the payrolls recovery has started rolling over. This chart from ANZ_Research bolsters that view #ausbiz #auspol

Some of the economic damage from this crisis has still not become clear in the data. A key question for economies is how many businesses permanently close through this and therefore how many jobs permanently disappear. This estimate for the US US is very worrying.

Though there has been a general improvement in Australia's high frequency data over the last fortnight, there are still signs the labour market is fragile. #ausecon #jobs Hayden Dimes @cfbirch

In 2021, potentially the biggest risk for financial markets is if policy stimulus starts to get pulled sooner than expected, as economies grow strongly with vaccines being rolled out.

As fiscal stimulus subsides, the approach to interstate border closures will matter a lot more for some states economic growth. #ausecon

The government’s fiscal strategy in phase 1 was to focus sharply on promoting jobs and growth until the unemployment rate is ‘comfortably back under 6 per cent’ before then restoring the fiscal position. Expect a growing focus on what ‘comfortably’ means after the drop to 5.8%

A likely increase in the deficit reflects the automatic stabilisers in action and additional discretionary fiscal support, which the economy needs during these tough lockdowns. This is how fiscal policy is meant to operate.

The acceleration in inflation in Australia has been widespread. Though some inflation from tradable goods will likely slow over the coming year, the higher inflation outlook is clear. The RBA will now almost certainly need to adjust its forward guidance.