Two competing effects influence our northern winters: #1 Global warming. #2 Increasing polar air outbreaks due to stratospheric polar vortex disturbances. In the long run #1 wins - our winters are getting warmer. 1/🧵

The winter heat is starting to gather momentum. This is just the beginning with countless records about to fall later this week. Hamburg, Germany 🇩🇪 just shattered the record for its hottest winter day ever. Average for this time of year is closer to +4°C.

Just out: our new paper affirming the unprecedented slowdown of the Gulf Stream System (aka Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, 𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗖) in Nature Geoscience! Nature Geoscience A thread. 1/11

Brunt Ice Shelf calves along North Rift chasm - A 1270 km² #iceberg has broken off the #BruntIceShelf. #HalleyVI Research Station is closed for the winter and unlikely to be affected. Full story: bas.ac.uk/media-post/bru… 📽️ #NorthRift, #Antarctica, 16 Feb 2021, British Antarctic Survey 🐧

A strong manifestation of the Circumglobal Telecconnection (CGT) pattern is showing up just after mid-July, esp on the GEFS. This pattern is in large part forced by subseasonal enhancement of the Indian Summer Monsoon. See Beverley et al (2021) for more: link.springer.com/content/pdf/10…

The response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the #ClimateCrisis is discussed in this Review by Wenju Cai et al., including increases in ENSO magnitude, ENSO-related rainfall, and SST variability. nature.com/articles/s4301… free: rdcu.be/cv4f4

"We've been warning against climate change for about 50 years or so." We spoke to new laureate Klaus Hasselmann just minutes after the announcement of his #NobelPrize in Physics. Take a listen:

New study: Europe is a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes. The reason: changes in the jet stream. nature.com/articles/s4146…

Our new study on European #HeatWaves covered by New York Times The New York Times nytimes.com/2022/07/06/cli…

A new study suggests the increasing frequency of western European heatwaves is linked to increased persistence of Eurasian double jets in the upper troposphere. @syn_efou Kai Kornhuber Goratz Beobide Arsuaga Fei Luo Dim Coumou Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK nature.com/articles/s4146…

'The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective' See our new preprint open for discussion Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) led by @syn_efou as a joint effort from #ClimXtreme By Ethical Hacker project members egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022…

The Basque language has always been surrounded by mystery with regards to its origin. Today, there has been a massive breakthrough on its history and origin 🧵

Excited to present the progress of my PhD in my hometown! Thanks ZarautzOn for the opportunity. #heatwaves #neuralnetworks

A week full of networking and science outreach! Many thanks to BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change, Naturklima, ZarautzOn and Gipuzkoako Kale Nagusia.

Could we potentially use spring North Atlantic SSTAs to anticipate European summer heatwaves? Check our new paper in collaboration with A. Düsterhus, Elizabeth A. Barnes, PhD, Wolfgang A. Müller and Johanna Baehr. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

A great new paper in GRL by Goratz on the connection between Sea Surface Temperatures and European Summer Heatwaves on seasonal scales done with a neural network approach. (1/7)

1/ There has been a recent hype about the polar vortex, so I want to add some info (and an SSW poll — better late than never, see further down in thread). By “polar vortex”, I mean the stratospheric vortex at ~20-50km above the Earth’s surface over the polar regions in winter.

The stratosphere is preparing for a sudden stratopsheric warming (SSW) event, meaning a breakup of the stratospheric polar vortex — what does it mean for weather at the surface? 1/n washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/0…

1/n Interesting to monitor the forecast for the seven #LSDPatKIT North-Atlantic European regimes in the advent of the major warming going on in the stratosphere – a thread for the weather experts.

New paper out! A look at the climate and weather scale for the 2018 summer heat wave. Focussing on Germany and Scandinavia it has also some interesting points for Ireland. Published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/16… (1/11)