Today is the start of the CMI's 100th year! #actuaries

actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-deve…

There’s a lot of confusion about the new ONS excess deaths methodology. Some thoughts on the model, its limitations and #ExcessDeaths in general.

These are personal views. I don’t speak for ONS or any other organisations or individuals involved in updating the method. 1/17

In a new blog published today Office for National Statistics (ONS) have announced a new UK-wide approach to producing national estimates of excess mortality.

New method moves away from 5-year averages, using statistical models to estimate expected number of deaths and hence any excess.
blog.ons.gov.uk/2024/02/15/exc…

Adele's contribution to COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group can't be overstated. She coauthored over 40 reports in 2years and gave generously of her time to inform media and the public, all while wrestling with her health and being there for her family, friends and colleagues. She'll be much missed.

I am so sad to hear of Adele’s passing. We were last in contact on Thursday, and although I was aware the end was close, it is still such a shock to hear that she is no longer with us.

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It is with sadness that I, Louis Rossouw, have to let you know that Adele passed away from cancer late on Friday. I've known Adele for many years since she was working in Cape Town, to when she moved to Gen Re in London in 2008 and later when she joined my team at Gen Re.

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 19% in-week.
 
R-estimate is stable at 1.12.
 
Admissions rose in all English regions. Largest increases in the South West (61%) and NE&Yorks (35%).
 
Acute bed occupancy is up by 6%.

UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance.

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gov.uk/government/sta…

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 22% in-week.

R-estimate fell slightly to 1.11.

Admissions rose in all English regions. Largest increases in the Midlands (30%) and the North West (30%).

Acute bed occupancy is up by 13%.

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 8 December.

Death rates this week were very similar to the equivalent week in 2019 (0.3% higher), based on death registrations data. 1/3

I've been poring over today's NHS data releases and the picture for emergency care isn't pretty.

Last year I estimated 400 additional deaths a week arising from A&E delays, Sep-Nov.

This year looks just as bad, despite less Covid and flu - so far!
lcp.com/our-viewpoint/…

📃 Latest UK Health Security Agency #influenza surveillance report for England

⏰ Week 49 2023 data (04-10 Dec 2023)

⬆️ influenza activity in many indicators, broadly tracking trend from 2017/18 & 2018/19

📊Influenza hospitalisations crossed into low impact threshold

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/657afbb5…

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 27% in-week.

R-estimate incresed to 1.15.

Admissions were flat in the East (-2%) but rose sharply elsewhere. Largest increases in the South East (46%) and the South West (45%).

Acute bed occupancy is up by 26%.

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 1 December.

Death rates this week were 1% lower than the equivalent week in 2019, based on death registrations data. 1/3

It's back!

After a hiatus of 8 months, it's a welcome return for the ONS #COVIDinfectionstudy , and it shows that in England & Scotland the prevalence is around 1.2%.
That's up from the previous week of 1.0%, but still much lower than any prevalence seen last winter.

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Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 10% in-week.

Our R-value has increased to 1.06.

Admissions rose in all regions except NE&Yorks (-6%). Largest increaes in the South West (+35%) and the East (+29%).

Acute bed occupancy is up by 4%.

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 24 November.

Death rates this week were very similar to the equivalent week in 2019 (0.3% higher), based on death registrations data. 1/3

Post-pandemic mortality analysis from the Continuous Mortality Investigation features in the latest edition of The Lancet Regional Health - Europe: actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media…

For ages 50-64, deaths involving cardiovascular diseases such as heart disease and stroke were 33% higher than expected.

Other causes with significant excess deaths at ages 50-64 were acute respiratory infections (43% excess) and diabetes (35% excess).