John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profileg
John Roberts

@john_actuary

Actuary for far too many years. Welsh, but now live in the spiritual home of the Wurzels out west. Don’t think I’ve got the accent yet. Like zider though...

ID:1114206378460160001

calendar_today05-04-2019 16:41:16

16,4K Tweets

13,3K Followers

171 Following

John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Age standardised mortality rates are close to the lowest seen at this stage of the year, although expect a bit of an uptick next week, as the two Easter BH's are caught up in the first full working week after Easter.

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Registered deaths continue to be below ONS' benchmark, although like last week it's difficult to read too much into it, due to BH distortions. As usual the CMI age-standardised cumulative position for 2024 will be available later on.

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UK Health Security Agency(@UKHSA) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Eligible people can now book their spring vaccine online or via the 📱

Appointments will start from MONDAY 22 APRIL 🗓️

Find out more and book now at: nhs.uk/conditions/cov…

Eligible people can now book their spring #COVID19 vaccine online or via the #NHSapp 📱 Appointments will start from MONDAY 22 APRIL 🗓️ Find out more and book now at: nhs.uk/conditions/cov…
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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Q1 age-standardised mortality in line with the best pre-COVID year (2019), but read the thread for more insight on differences by age group.

Notwithstanding some reservations it’s not a bad place to be in given recent history and current health challenges.

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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 29 Mar.

9,389 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. The number of death registrations was affected by the Good Friday bank holiday.

Year-to-date there have been 155,093 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 29 Mar. 9,389 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. The number of death registrations was affected by the Good Friday bank holiday. Year-to-date there have been 155,093 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.
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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Great to be in the same park as Emma - means I get to see some proper shots from a professional rather than just my amateur attempts!

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Miraculously the clouds cleared in time for my third solar eclipse. Prefer to soak up the spectacle than spend time fiddling with a camera but 4 mins totality gave time for a few quick phone shots.

Miraculously the clouds cleared in time for my third solar eclipse. Prefer to soak up the spectacle than spend time fiddling with a camera but 4 mins totality gave time for a few quick phone shots. #eclipse2024 #Dallas
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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Age-standardised mortality rates this week and year-to-date remain among the lowest seen at this time of year.

This CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline.

Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations
actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…

Age-standardised mortality rates this week and year-to-date remain among the lowest seen at this time of year. This CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline. Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…
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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 22 March.

11,249 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week, which is 6% lower than expected.

Year-to-date there have been 145,705 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 22 March. 11,249 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week, which is 6% lower than expected. Year-to-date there have been 145,705 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.
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Nic Millar(@NJM71) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Retweeting this because the WASPI woman with three properties, two bought with cash, who wants compensation for not checking her state pension age before making such huge financial decisions, will never not be a head shaker.

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

After 4 years the last weekly update to hospital COVID admissions. I’d like to add my thanks to all those Stuart lists in the thread, and of course add him to that list too, as he’s done a sterling job updating his graphs and providing accompanying analysis over that period.

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I feel a parallel with WASPIs in this story. We’ve seen similar stories of denied boarding for a couple of years, and there was a lot of publicity at the time. Yet people think it’s someone else’s fault. Eg “it’s a technicality airlines should deal with” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Hospital admissions with COVID in England decreased by 15% in-week.

R-estimate has fallen to 0.9.

Admissions remained flat in the East but fell elsewhere. Largest decreases in the Midlands (-30%) and NE&Yorks (-24%)

Acute bed occupancy is down by 13%.

Hospital admissions with COVID in England decreased by 15% in-week. R-estimate has fallen to 0.9. Admissions remained flat in the East but fell elsewhere. Largest decreases in the Midlands (-30%) and NE&Yorks (-24%) Acute bed occupancy is down by 13%.
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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

As noted earlier cumulative age-standardised mortality rates continue at relatively low levels - consistent with 2019 and pre-COVID 2020 experience, albeit a little higher than 2022 at this point in the year.

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Death counts remain well below expected, as we've seen all this year.

(For those complaining that the ONS has changed the goalpost with its new methodology, the CMI year by year comparison later today should confirm that mortality rates this year are tracking very low.)

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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Today’s ONS release shows notable falls in healthy life expectancy during the peak pandemic years.

This is based on self-reported health (own perception) and the latest data is 2020-22. Hopefully future updates show improvements as pandemic years fall out of the 3-year window.

Today’s ONS release shows notable falls in healthy life expectancy during the peak pandemic years. This is based on self-reported health (own perception) and the latest data is 2020-22. Hopefully future updates show improvements as pandemic years fall out of the 3-year window.
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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I completely endorse this message, and hope that it doesn’t fall foul of a future libertarian government as is happening in New Zealand.

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John Roberts(@john_actuary) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is an excellent short read on the WASPI cause, and I particularly like the way the conclusions are clearly set out. conservativehome.com/2024/03/25/dav…

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