Thread on #oil 1-6 Over the years, I have done a lot of work on the optimal price of oil OPEC leaders will operate in the sweet spot. Where is the sweet spot now? Based on my mode, we are already in it. Things start getting sour when Brent is above $75, bitter below $68. #OOTT

Colonial has confirmed a successful restart of the pipeline did take place last night. Lines 1 and 2 back online, went smoothly.

If you address supply before demand, then the market does its work: it drives prices to the point where consumption is curtailed (in inelastic markets, like power, that point is very high). That's quite painful for consumers. When something is painful, voters stop supporting it.

Californians pay the same for fuel in normal times that the rest of the country typically only sees in major disruptions.

Excellent 🧵👇

E&Ps right now

July gas demand was only -2.3% off of 2019 - huge demand improvement vs 1H 2021 July demand peaked in 2018, barely matching 2007 demand despite +10% VMT. 2019 VMT was higher still. Mobility data analysts rarely consider fuel economy + mix when making for fuel demand projections

OPEC and a Russia-led group of oil producers agreed to continue increasing production in measured steps, deciding against opening the taps any further amid fast-rising oil prices wsj.com/articles/opec-… via The Wall Street Journal

Are you ready for a stunning lesson in oil politics, history, and economics? Read this long thread below. Now is the 48th anniversary of the 1973 oil Embargo that still shapes US energy policy until today. #Oil #OPEC #OOTT #Oil_History

The price war is over. OPEC+ and U.S. shale are both focused on sustainable FCF. Higher pump prices are here to stay.

IEA update: ignore the bearish spin...the OECD inventory deficit to the '15-'19 average increased by 30% in a month to 202MM Bbls and levels now sit near a 7 year low...2022 oversupply forecasts based on OPEC hitting quotas when OPEC+ is under producing already by 113,000Bbl/d.🚀

More cracks in the levee for c-store charging economics

Traders warn of looming global diesel shortage via Financial Times on.ft.com/3qr3oXO

Murphy USA is doing well despite the environment, but as the company eyes a 500-store expansion, it will be challenged by “stagnant fuel demand, normalizing retail margins and increasingly savvy competition,” one expert noted. cstoredive.com/news/murphy-us…

A big 'thanks' to everyone who reached out to chat about my latest C-Store Dive column. I've had more feedback on this than just about everything else I've written, and I've genuinely enjoyed the conversations. In case you missed it ⬇️

Average US gasoline prices have risen at the fastest pace over the past two days since 2005.

*KUWAIT CUTS OIL PRODUCTION AT SOME OIL FIELDS: WSJ *KUWAIT CUTS OIL AFTER RUNNING OUT OF ROOM TO STORE CRUDE: WSJ Every day this goes on it becomes durably trickier to restart the system when it does eventually end.