“Before we get to the maths, what is going on here?” Erica Thompson on ethical questions in science and simulation. LSE Data Science Institute

Judea Pearl Brian Bucher, one mean absolute deviant Huw Llewelyn Frank Harrell @AndrewDGarrett Elmir Omerovic Edgar G. Dorsey-Trevino, MD, MMSc Roger Borràs Felipe John Mandrola, MD Sanjay Kaul Gregg W. Stone MD Steven Julious "The data may not contain the answer. The combination of some data and an aching desire for an answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer can be extracted from a given body of data." John Tukey, jstor.org/stable/2683137 PP74-75

Erica and I agree on many if not most things, but here she mentioned the ethics of maths. Maths, like wood, just is. While there is an ethics of mathematicians & an ethics of carpenters/carpentry, is there really an ethics of maths? Perhaps Erica Thompson addresses this in her book?

Thanks Glen. I keep trying to remap model-land from this hand drawing to something more “professional” looking, but it always loses too much in transition. Then again, it is only a model of model-land. I should not make the mistake of thinking it could be perfect.

Dr. Robert Rohde As climate models improve, we tend to include more and more detail. I recall early NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research model runs made in perpetual January… The issue is not “realism” but adequacy for purpose, no?

Word of the Day

Probability #Forecasts #NFL #SuperBowlLVII #KCvsPHI Today’s game & overall postseason show challenges to #probabilistic #prediction: the utility of knowing the governing (“true”) probability (if it exists; a proper score pushing me to hedge Philadelphia Eagles 99% over Kansas City Chiefs … what else?

One must admit that ChatGPT responds to constructive criticism better than most grad students or aging professors.

Intrigued to to find my book in such interesting company. The next four Shengwu Li lists are Extinction, Free Will, God and Happiness. (Thx Molly Hickman )

New academic year. New #NFL season tonight. New Home-win Forecasting App. Working with #VT students to practice decision making and uncertainty guidance, as they feel the risk of forecasting the probability of a how-win for #Chiefs in #BALvKC @VTECE Ed Wheatcroft Sports Data Analytics Club

Perhaps this statement holds for The Laws Of Physics (if such things exist) but it need not hold for today's version of our laws of physics.

Pi in the sky! Happy pi day.