The number of container ships departing from China to the US declined further in recent days as businesses canceled orders, while China is also canceling some US imports. Source: Bloomberg Economics

US inflation estimates for 2025 were revised higher again.

Economists have been actively revising down their projections for US economic growth this year.

US job growth is expected to slow sharply this year.

From @soberlook Downward earnings revisions for S&P 500 firms have spiked to levels not seen since the pandemic or the Global Financial Crisis Charles Schwab Corp @factset

Both business optimism and capital spending expectations in the U.S. have plunged, marking one of the steepest two-month declines since the pandemic. Goldman Sachs Gunjan Banerji

VC funding for South Korean startups has steadily declined since the Q4 2021 peak. Source: PitchBook

Hedge funds have been selling energy shares. Source: Goldman Sachs Daily Chartbook

Student loan delinquencies (30+ days past due) surged to 15.6% post-on-ramp, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, signaling heightened repayment stress and potential impending credit score impacts. Source: New York Fed

Equities: Goldman’s positioning indicator, deeply in negative territory, suggests there is room for stocks to rally. (((The Daily Shot))) dailyshotbrief.com

“Long gold” is now considered the most crowded trade for the second month in a row (1), and a record 45% of fund managers now view gold as overvalued—the highest reading in the survey’s 17-year history (2). Source: Bank of America Business Insights

Equities: On a long-term basis, the US equity-bond correlation has trended more positive since COVID. ty (((The Daily Shot))) dailyshotbrief.com

Rates: The X-date is projected to fall in late August or early September. ty (((The Daily Shot))) May: $BBB passes House June: Senate susses it out July: Reconciliation August: Trump inks it dailyshotbrief.com

The US has the largest fiscal deficit within the G7. Source: MRB Partners

Goldman’s Twitter-based sentiment indicator has surged, diverging from consumer confidence. Goldman Sachs Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

The TACO trade oversimplifies the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. The Geneva US-China truce offered only temporary relief, allowing US retailers to stock up for the holidays—a priority to avoid empty shelves. Once that window closes this summer, tariff escalation remains

Russia’s 2025 federal budget deficit has widened sharply, reaching nearly the full-year target within just five months amid collapsing oil and gas revenues. The cumulative shortfall now exceeds RUB 3.4 trillion, a stark divergence from prior years and nearly five times the

This should keep oil traders awake ...

A vegan cookout this July 4th?