Getting some emails/DMs regarding no newsletter past couple of days.

As a reminder, DC is on vacation until 5/10.

Back Monday, 5/13.

'We forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in April, a deceleration from the 276k average gain over the past three months.'

- BofA Gapen

Getting some emails/DMs regarding no newsletter past couple of days.

As a reminder, DC is on vacation until 5/10.

Back Monday, 5/13.

'The fact that a few stocks are near record share of overall market cap is not healthy.'

- JPM Matejka

Sharp outflows from $LQD ETFs point 'to higher investor nervousness about US HG credit, which has the disadvantage of longer duration and higher sensi- tivity to rising UST yields.'

- JPM Panigirtzoglou

'The Federal Reserve’s next move this year is likely to be a rate cut - despite the re-emergence of inflation - leaving markets at risk of a dovish repricing.'

Simon White via zerohedge

'The calendar year 2024 earnings estimate is holding up like a rock at around 9%. Typically, it would be drifting lower at this stage, but we are only a few quarters into a new earnings up-cycle, so it makes sense for the estimates to hold up.'

Jurrien Timmer

'The correlation between tech stocks and treasuries is now as positive as it was during the peak of the tech bubble in early 2000. This issue strikes at the heart of conventional 60/40 portfolios.'

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

Stocks typically do well during PMI expansion periods, led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials. Tech has historically been the biggest laggard.

via BofA Kwon

'Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income.'

The Conference Board

The 20-city home price index jumped 0.9% MoM in February to 7.3% YoY (vs. 6.7% est). The former is the largest increase since June 2023 while the latter is the largest since October 2022.

chart Gregory Daco

'More than 80% of total employment in the US economy is outside the S&P 500 companies.'

- Torsten Sløk

The GS FCI 'eased by 12.0bp to 99.54 over the last week, mostly due to higher equity prices.'

- GS Hatzius

5 of Tuesday's best charts and insights:

dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-118

FHFA House Price Index:

'FHFA home prices rose 1.2% MoM in February (most since April 2022) to 6.8% YoY'. - Daily Chartbook

'In the US, 87% of firms with revenue greater than $100 million are private.'

- Torsten Sløk

Global stocks have twice the weighting to 'Old Cyclicals' (Energy, Materials, Financials, Industrials) compared to the US.

Callum Thomas Topdown Charts

'The fact that a few stocks are near record share of overall market cap is not healthy.'

- JPM Matejka

Sharp outflows from $LQD ETFs point 'to higher investor nervousness about US HG credit, which has the disadvantage of longer duration and higher sensi- tivity to rising UST yields.'

- JPM Panigirtzoglou

'The Federal Reserve’s next move this year is likely to be a rate cut - despite the re-emergence of inflation - leaving markets at risk of a dovish repricing.'

Simon White via zerohedge