Bloomberg’s aggregate hedge fund index tends to underperform the S&P 500 significantly but is much less volatile. Some in the industry argue that hedge funds tend to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis. In aggregate, that’s simply not true.

'Asset managers' equity futures positioning has been very bullish.' thedailyshot.com/2024/04/23/how… via (((The Daily Shot)))

The NFIB small business hiring intentions index points to weaker US job growth this quarter.

Source: ING

US households are growing more concerned about the possibility of job loss.

Surging exuberance toward stocks among US consumers indicates that the market may be vulnerable here.

While market attention has centered on the FOMC maintaining its projection of three rate cuts for this year, the dot plot has been adjusted upward beyond 2024.

The probability of a Fed rate cut in May tumbled in response to the hot US CPI print.

This is yet another sign of a softening US labor market. Small businesses are hiring fewer people and see no shortage of qualified workers.

The supercore PCE inflation, closely monitored by the Fed, surged in January. This picture does not scream “rate cuts.”

The B-BB corporate bond spread is in “stretched” territory as risk appetite grows.

Market sentiment looks stretched in the options market, with traders increasingly betting on asymmetric outcomes. Complacency is setting in. Here is the S&P 500 skew (lowest in at least a decade).

The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment report shows growing stock market optimism among US households. Still want to be bullish with the crowd?

The Conference Board’s survey shows deteriorating intentions to purchase homes in the US.

US capital goods orders are increasingly lagging shipments, signaling weaker demand.

Small US banks are reporting elevated delinquency rates on credit card debt.

US equity market concentration keeps rising.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Time to switch to polyester?

Nomura’s assessment of January’s core PCE inflation points to the largest monthly increase in a year.

Source: Nomura

Despite Beijing’s rate cut, steel futures are rolling over amid soft demand from China’s struggling housing sector.

Sanctions typically have a positive impact on the gold market.

Source: ANZ_Research