In today's post, the authors show that import competition has contributed to increased production concentration due to a reallocation of market share from small domestic firms to large ones. nyfed.org/3UKs1yn

Statement Regarding Reinvestment of Principal Payments from Treasury Securities, Agency Debt, and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities
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The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q1 remains at 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.2] and the 68% interval at [0.7, 3.7]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.7% for 2024:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3LbPEur

JUST RELEASED: Outlook-at-Risk → Downside risks to real GDP growth remain at historically normal levels, with the estimated conditional distribution of average growth over the next four quarters close to the unconditional distribution. Explore the data: nyfed.org/41kwlUL

In today's post, the authors review how New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel data have provided many valuable insights into household behavior and its implications for the macro economy and financial stability. nyfed.org/3xPuM8c

Activity remained steady in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to our April 2024 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at -0.6. Explore the data: nyfed.org/2ygXLUi

In today's post, the authors review some of the Survey of Consumer Expectations' headline findings, highlighting the evolution of consumers’ expectations about inflation and labor market outcomes over the past decade. nyfed.org/4cW4lOt

Earlier today, President John Williams discussed the state of the U.S. economy, recent inflation data, and the outlook for monetary policy with Bloomberg Television. Watch here: bloom.bg/43XLIp4

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. Learn more: nyfed.org/2T8gCbr

In today's post, the authors provide a critical review of the empirical and theoretical literature on bank supervision to highlight its impact on supervised banks, the banking industry, and the broader economy. nyfed.org/3PZi50Y

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q1 remains at 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.2, 3.2] and the 68% interval at [0.7, 3.8]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.6% for 2024:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3LbPEur

Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. In today's post, the authors study the supply chain reconfiguration and associated effects of export controls by the U.S. government. nyfed.org/3UcurW7

In today's post, the authors show that the relationship between the policy rates of the European Central Bank and the size of European money market funds investing in euro-denominated securities is positive—if policy rates are positive.
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In today's post, the authors examine the possible factors behind the reaction of insurance investors to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. nyfed.org/4cQveTM