To project power in the Middle East, many major powers have established patron-client relationships with local allies, writes Joost Hiltermann. Amid the war in Gaza, these relationships threaten to drag Washington and Tehran into direct confrontation.
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Want to gauge the Middle East's danger level?
Check Crisis Group's Iran-US/Israel Trigger List-now packed with unprecedented flashy red points.

🚨Still, further Israel-Iran escalation is not inevitable. All sides are now in a position to step back and they should do so.…

“Iran and Israel are still rattling their sabers, and Israel may respond to Iran’s attacks with more strikes. The two states could keep trading escalating blows leading to an expanding war that draws in the United States and envelops the whole region.”
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As the patrons of Israel and Hamas, only the United States and Iran are equipped with the tools needed to end the war in Gaza—and to prevent a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, argues Joost Hiltermann.
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🚨Our crisis alert on #Iran #Israel 🚨 crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

I spoke with Isaac Chotiner The New Yorker about intl humanitarian law, US laws governing security assistance, and how Biden’s policy to not condition military assistance to Israel plays a significant role in the interpretation and application of those laws.

newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/w…

Thread on #GazaFamine and accompanying instructive visuals from Crisis Group

New from @HRW: Following months of collective punishment, kids in #Gaza are dying from starvation-related complications. Israeli officials ordering or carrying out these actions are committing war crimes. hrw.org/news/2024/04/0…

Very helpful overview from my colleague Sarah Elaine Harrison on the laws and policies that govern US security assistance and arms sales and how they are being interpreted in the context of the war in Gaza.

As the patrons of Israel and Hamas, only the United States and Iran are equipped with the tools needed to end the war in Gaza—and to prevent a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, argues Joost Hiltermann.
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Our new report on #Gaza will come out on Monday, April 8. Sneak preview: the situation is catastrophic. And manmade. Crisis Group

Here is the Arabic translation of my recent piece in Foreign Affairs for Crisis Group on Iran, the US, and the Middle East crisis.

'Der Iran strebt derzeit keine offene Konfrontation mit Israel oder den USA an', sagt Joost Hiltermann. Um die Lage im Nahen Osten zu beruhigen und den Krieg in Gaza zu beenden, müssten die USA den Israeli
sagen: 'Genug ist genug.'

handelsblatt.com/100029768.html…

New Foreign Affairs piece from Comfort Ero challenging a lot of what you think you know about the 'Global South'.
foreignaffairs.com/world/trouble-…

Today, the war in Gaza is threatening to drag the United States and Iran—the chief patrons of Israel and Hamas, respectively—into an all-out regional conflict, writes Joost Hiltermann. How can Washington and Tehran reduce the risk of escalation?
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The ban on US $$ to UNRWA until March 25 is a NOT what the Israeli FM glibly pretends it is. However you feel about UNRWA, facts matter. Here are key facts about the aid ban to UNRWA (beyond the overarching fact that it is unconscionable & a moral obscenity):
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As the patrons of Israel and Hamas, only the United States and Iran are equipped with the tools needed to end the war in Gaza—and to prevent a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, argues Joost Hiltermann.
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