Big difference between permabulls and those who are bulls in a bull market. The latter add value - the former are just noise. Know who it is you are listening to.

AAII Bears > Bulls last week for the first time since April and for only the second time this year. The absence of pessimism is a feature of bull markets.

All the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past 25+ years have occurred within Breadth Thrust Regimes. The most recent Breadth Thrust Regime ended over the weekend. Without that tailwind it would not be a surprise to see stocks struggle to sustain strength.

We've moved out of the breadth regime triggered by last December's spike in new 20-day highs and global market conditions remain challenging. History suggests that under such conditions weakness from the S&P 500 should not be a surprise. Hi Mount Research

It would be unprecedented for full-time employment to contract on a year-over-year basis and the economy not experience a recession. Full-time employment peaked 18 months ago and has been negative on a year-over-year basis since February.

Now at 11 and still counting. . .

Stocks facing seasonal headwinds to start 2025 after a lackluster finish to 2024.

Last week's rally had a feel good quality but it was not enough to turn our sector breadth model positive.

Gold is hitting new highs and its strength has been persistent. It has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past month, the past year and the past 3 years. It has also outperformed every sector in the S&P 500 over the past month, the past year and the past 3 years.

A rally that cannot produce a Breadth Thrust is a rally that should not be trusted. himountresearch.substack.com/p/unanchored-i…

After longest period of sustained strength in stocks vs bonds in over a decade, the trend is turning away from stocks and toward bonds.

Once again, when you lose the bulls you lose the bull market. You don't need a crystal ball to navigate the market, but you do need to have your head up and your eyes open.

And we know the worst and best days tend to occur next to each other. So what happens if we miss the best and worst days? Better returns, lower vol, lesser drawdown. Trend followers are onto something.. h/t Hi Mount Research Aug 2024, Topdown Charts May 2025 and

"While domestic breadth has been uneven, global breadth strength has been resilient. The percentage of global markets above their 50-day average is in the 80’s and the percentage of markets above their 200-day average is in the 90’s." Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA Hi Mount Research

🇺🇸 US Breadth 👉 Uneven 🌏 Global breadth 👉 Resilient The percentage of global markets above their 50-day average is in the 80’s and the percentage of markets above their 200-day average is in the 90’s. via Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA of Hi Mount Research