the 'Indo-Pacific tilt' #Brexit

So the IMF has released their latest WEO Database today with confirmed national GDP data for 2023. In the 12 months to September 2023 the blue line accounted for 46% of UK's trade, the red line 7%.

So you’re saying UK is not an 80% services driven economy now and more like 70% of GDP (much like EU)? 🤷‍♂️

Source: UNCTAD Global Trade Update (March 2024)

My graphic shows the number of vacant and derelict sites near the Abbey Theatre on Lower Abbey Street in Dublin City.
The housing system in Ireland is in crisis, primarily due to ineffective governmental policies. The prolonged dereliction of properties should be considered…

It's amusing watching insecure Brexiteers clingy attachment to a UK marketing agency's self-promoted soft-power index. It's no more objective or authoritative than another such subjective soft power index, e.g. Monocle magazine's:

Probably just a coincidence

The hollowing of central and eastern Europe is staggering

Brexiteer 🤡 and their 🤡 fantasies 😂

I want to try to encapsulate the magnitude of big picture problems Russia is having. So here is a list:

1. In the wake of a terrorist attack Putin is blaming Ukraine instead of ISIS. This means that they might not be taking steps to address the actual problem

Brexiteers: we’re a services driven economy 😊

Narrator: manufacturing’s % of total GVA will drop so 🤷‍♂️

Brexiteers: manufacturing’s % of total GVA has dropped 😭

“on top of the £1 trillion in fees paid each year” 💩

Brexidiots: a self-sustaining 🤡 loop

1/5. Predictably Putin has blamed Ukraine (see my thread from yesterday) for the terror attack in Moscow (for which ISIS claimed responsibility).

The Irish govt did serious contingency planning before the referendum, built a cross-party response, engaged intensively with detail & launched a huge diplomatic effort.

Oddly, refusing to work across party, not preparing, antagonising allies and chest-thumping worked less well.

Would I go this far in saying no more trade deals? Not quite, but the current circumstances are obviously negative, and Free Trade Agreements appear to have largely had their day - as I have been warning for some time. Quite what comes next needs a lot more thought.

Here is David Frost admitting that he was no match for the Government of Ireland, led by Leo Varadkar.

Huge kudos to Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney in successfully safeguarding Ireland’s strategic priorities around #Brexit .

David Frost must have found it very hard to admit this.

Frost is mainly referring to Johnson.

Leo and Boris, Wirral, England, Oct. 10th, 2019

🚨🚨 Tldr; 'we know the TCA is not very good for you, it would be better for you if you would be in the EU SM... but it works well for us so ...we are probably not very interested in investing resources and energy in renegotiating it'. Thanks Steve Peers for sharing this. 👇👇

From ‘What we’re not going to do is to design a border for the Brexiteers’ to ‘We prevented a hard border between North and South and protected our place in Europe.’ Five key moments for the Brexit Taoiseach.

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

For those wondering why the UK is copying the EU CBAM.

Well, because politically it probably won’t really have a choice. Dominoes.

mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/most-favoure…

So not much changes then.

Real GDP change since pre-Brexit
(current × 2024 OECD forecast):

🇺🇸 +10.5%
🇨🇦 +5.3%
🇮🇹 +4.3%
🇯🇵 +3.8%
EZ +3.6%
🇫🇷 +2.5%
🇬🇧 +1.7%
🇩🇪 +0.4%

David C Bannerman = 🤡