All these weenies posting 300+ hour deterministic model runs of hurricanes hitting the US coast are probably going to scare the real storms away.

Real

Some new Hovmoller plots out. You can now see subsurface plots which add some context to the ENSO states. I've also added Hovmollers for the EPS model and velocity potential! Something you don't see a whole lot of around

Nothing says the Tropical Atlantic has Hadley Cell problems quite like seeing the warmest mean SSTs up at 30N (even outside the Gulf!) 🤢

Another way to conceptualize the impact of equatorial upper-level westerly winds on the Atlantic is consider the curl of the wind vector A positive curl here favors Tropical Upper Troposphere Troughs (TUTTs), which leads to more wind shear & dry/stable air in the Atlantic

When will the 300+ hour AIFS hurricane hit my house

Tropical weenies posting Euro AI runs are just as bad as winter weenies that post 300+ hour deterministic snow maps.

Tropical Storm #Iona in the Central Pacific looks primed to rapidly intensify. A closed and thick cyan ring on a recent microwave pass coupled with increasing organization and an eye-like feature trying to develop on IR 👀

This is the kind of stuff I want to wake up to in the morning #Iona

I wonder what happened to that AIFS hurricane that was getting hyped up on #wxtwitter? 🤔

Central Atlantic waves are pretty convection-free at the moment, as background stability and dry air suppresses rising motion. Not surprisingly, there isn't much model signal for development anymore - the AI models seemed to have been overzealous. For now it seems like

Next week’s heatwave in New Mexico is likely being forced by an ongoing MJO passage thru the NE Pacific. The latent heat from the MJO & the several TCs it should spawn will help reinforce the ~600 dam ridge over New Mexico via deep-layer subsidence & a Gill-type response #nmwx