Not sure what this "pattern effect" thing that you've heard about means? Here's a quick read we put together (led by Maria Rugenstein/not on X, Mark Zelinka @PauloCeppi Tim Andrews).

John is bang on - uncertainty in historical SST observations is a fundamental uncertainty that so much depends on in climate science. From pattern effects to the record of global temperature change itself, and so much inbetween. We as a community need to discuss this more.

Graduate Student Ursula Jongebloed and Prof. @BeckyAtmChem's new findings are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy showing that North Atlantic marine productivity may not be declining as had been proposed. UW News' Hannah Hickey explains more here: washington.edu/news/2023/11/1…

Professor Mike Wallace received the Japan Prize along with Professor Sir Brian Hoskins from the UK. Their research established a scientific foundation for understanding and forecasting extreme weather and climate events that the world is experiencing. japanprize.jp/en/prize_past_…

New paper in PNASNews led with @cristiproist shows that a weird spatial pattern of temperature change has slowed global-mean warming since 1980. Because the pattern could evolve in the future, observed warming doesn’t help us constrain long-term warming. pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

UW's Vince Cooper has shown that accounting for spatial patterns of temperature change makes the LGM an even stronger constraint, which with other lines of evidence suggests climate sensitivity is very likely between about 2K and 4K. Look for this work soon! eartharxiv.org/repository/vie…

New paper of ours on tropical high clouds is out now! The satellite-observed area feedback, aka “iris” feedback, is not as stabilizing as previously thought. If all else is equal, this would increase climate sensitivity slightly. NSF NCAR CGD Laboratory NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research doi.org/10.1029/2023JD…

. @lettie_roach and Walt Meier write on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. TL;DR: Annual, summer minimum and winter maximum Antarctic sea ice extent were the lowest on record. Arctic sea ice extent was the 5th lowest on record. nature.com/articles/s4301…

I'm excited to share a new paper in Science Advances led by UW's Vince Cooper showing that the last ice age provides much stronger constraints on Earth's climate sensitivity and future warming when ice-sheet driven temperature patterns are accounted for. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Theres an important new study from many of the leading researchers on paleoclimate and climate sensitivity. They provide a new, more robust estimate of climate sensitivity from the last glacial maximum, suggesting a sensitivity of 2.9C (95%: 2.1 to 4.1C) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Our new paper on tropical cloud feedbacks is out in Nature Geoscience. We show that changes in high cloud area do not provide a negative feedback on climate change like previously thought. Instead, high clouds become thinner with warming, which acts as a... nature.com/articles/s4156…

NEW – Guest post: Ice-age analysis suggests worst-case global warming is less likely | Vince Cooper Kyle Armour Read here: buff.ly/3UHairx

Guest post: Ice-age analysis suggests worst-case global warming is less likely | Vince Cooper Kyle Armour Read here: buff.ly/44rHvKU

Excellent Carbon Brief article by Vince Cooper and Kyle Armour discussing their recent paper finding that new estimates from the last glacial maximum suggest that high climate sensitivity (>4C per doubling CO2) may be less likely than previously thought: carbonbrief.org/guest-post-ice…

Excited to share that the Harvard Department of Statistics is seeking to appoint tenure-track faculty! Please share our posting with your graduating graduate students and postdocs: statistics.fas.harvard.edu/news/harvard-d… #HarvardStats

New paper led by Dan Lunt (Dan Lunt) showing how paleoclimates can be used to test whether climate models have plausible responses to CO2, check it out here: nature.com/articles/s4324…