Unless against disarmed civilians or very small countries ... or unless backed by massive amounts of US aid ... Russian wars tend to end badly for the Russian state. END

It’s quite remarkable that we are at a moment where there is finally a growing consensus that it was a massive failure not to arm Ukraine properly in 2022 and 2023, and yet at the same time, people are trying to say we don’t need to give Ukraine ranged weapons now.

Putin is spending $140bn while we struggle to promise fifty. We are basically sending him the message "We won't stop you", so he won't stop. But if we allocated $800bn, he would be forced to rethink. Yes, we could afford it. And yes, it would be cheaper than letting him carry on.

A lesson worth repeating: Putin does not care about Ukrainian territory. The annexations are merely a means to an end: Putin wants to control Kyiv. He has never wanted anything else, and will only stop the war when it begins to undermine his regime at home.

We’ve never lived in a moment in modern history where so many Sr Military Officials & political officials have warned about the danger a POTUS they served under poses to America. Let that sink in.

Does this look familiar? The standard government response in times of crisis: No need to worry, we don't have to do anything – We should maybe do something, but we can't – We should have acted, but now it's too late. #Ukraine #NorthKorea youtu.be/HSD1d-6P6qI?si… via YouTube

We do history and ourselves a disservice when we imagine the typical Nazi to be a monster beyond comparison. Most were simply mediocrities who were willing to rationalize abandoning moral norms for their own advancement.

And if we understand that, we understand that it’s not such an unbridgeable gap between our own situation and theirs. It never is.

The lesson of “the boy who cried wolf”isn’t that there are no wolves.

I’ll be honest: I find this view very strange. It either divorces politics from morals, or it divorces morality from friendship. (1/x)

"We're withholding our endorsement because our owner is frightened of government retaliation if Donald Trump wins" is a more forceful and eloquent statement than any newspaper editorial ever written.

"If we want to know how Trump is going to stifle the free press in the U.S., this is the answer. This is how it's going to happen, especially when the media is owned by corporate titans who have a lot to lose if Trump is angry at them" —Robert Kagan to Erin Burnett tonight

The collapse of American leadership before our eyes

Western Europeans say this louder than anyone else but only make very modest increases in defense spending. Eastern Europe on the other hand makes very substantial increases, but is largely ignored by Western Europe and the current Admin in the United States.

Confidence that our system will constrain a re-elected Trump is very misplaced. If our system were working as intended, we would not be contemplating the possibility of a re-elected Trump.

"Both the following observations are true: the US republic is in danger; and a stunning share of America is unbothered." My column ft.com/content/10b5a8…

Many prominent mainstream Republicans are offering a conservative case (with the future of conservatism in mind) for voting for Harris/Walz . . . but few more persuasively than former Bush speechwriter, Peter Wehner: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

WSJ: "The ultimate answer for Beijing probably lies at home. A strong domestic economy is needed to replace export demand and keep capital profitably invested." This is true not just for China but for all countries whose large, persistent trade surpluses are caused by industrial

"To introduce a tariff bill into congress or parliament is like throwing a banana into a cage of monkeys. No sooner is it proposed to protect one industry than all the industries that are capable of protection begin to screech and scramble for it." - Henry George

Wenn die Ukraine gezwungen wird, einen Waffenstillstand ohne Garantiemacht zu unterzeichnen u. ohne eine klare Definition ihres Status durch eine engere Westanbindung, eine EU/NATO-Mitgliedschaft, wird es mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit zu einem Nachfolgekrieg kommen.