It is moving through S ON with general thunderstorms. Clear skies behind will allow destabilization to begin for SW ON ahead of the cold front

Another low will bring unsettled conditions late Thu into Friday. Unlike the last system, this does not have a robust EML plume. Expect plain old showers and maybe a few storms thanks to weak instability and poor timing in S ON.

Today's semi-stationary boundaries ahead of the cold front. These will have a weak influence on activity today because the storms will be elevated.

Shallow line of showers/storms ahead of the CF today. Downpours are the main concern. Isolated risk of gusty winds if SBCAPE develops ( Essex, London & Niagara?) Decent chance pockets of rotation develop, but a hefty marine layer wont allow escalation.

The prefrontal storms weakened the surface inversion a bit in SW ON. Final round of showers/storms arriving with the cold front have a higher chance of mixing winds to the surface.

Keep an eye on the bend near Flat Rock MI as it tracks NE

The pattern is changing - unsettled wx enroute to S ON. Gulf moisture will surge northward underneath an EML plume. First wave arrives with plain showers on Sun. If good fuel spills in during the work week, the setup should bias toward a wind and hail risk.

An impending short wave will work with a lifting warm front to trigger storms over MN/WI/MI Mon evening. The blob of weakening storms will track through S ON Mon night into Tue morning. Primary Risk: Rain

Worth noting mostly sub-svr hail and wind are secondary risks. Messy storm mode will limit hail, and nocturnal stability will preclude a greater wind risk. Watch for cells along the WF ahead of the complex (hail) and a wakelow behind the complex (wind) Primarily a soaker!

Spotty showers are riding the 700 jet nose/dry punch north. Once it reaches the diffuse boundary draped across the midwest/GLs stronger storms will fire off.

They're bubbling away! S MI cluster will kick off activity in SW ON by 8-10pm. The boundary will stall and spur on and off activity throughout the night until the main line passes. Upstream activity in W IL could jeopardize the main line's strength.

This afternoon's boundaries ahead of the cold front

Conditional severe risk this aftn. Env may support small hail, but bias toward tor risk east of hwy 400. However, adequate storms are unlikely because low LCLs beneath hostile mid levels and strong LL shear will snub convection. Likely outcome: Clouds and isolated showers

Scattered storms are not expected along the lifting boundary in SW ON this evening until the MCS arrives. The EML is more robust north of the ongoing cluster in Indiana which should inhibit development.

Main line of storms arrives in SW ON after midnight. Primary Risk: Rain Secondary: Hail & Wind Env supports sct svr hail but messy storm mode should suppress the risk Gusty winds are possible but low lvl stability should keep gusts sub-svr

Models suggest a nominal difference in low level stability between MI (left) and SW ON (right). Therefore the gust front bears watching for winds/rotation as it nears SW ON. Overall risk remains on the low end as the line weakens