Trump’s ceasefire between Iran and Israel was declared, then shattered within hours. This analysis breaks down the illusion of peace, the real motives behind the strikes, and why the war hasn’t ended—just slipped into a new, quieter phase. geopolitics.asia/post/the-mirag…

As Thai politics spins in factional noise, this essay maps a fragile yet stable equilibrium—beyond coup fears and toward a metageopolitical future where military, economy, and narrative align under civilian-led strategy. geopolitics.asia/post/the-tacti…

Mainland SEA wasn’t born from one cradle, but many. From Irrawaddy to Chao Phraya to Tonle Sap, city-states rose, traded, and rivaled. This piece explores two views: a thousand flowers vs. a Funan-led hub. Which shaped the region’s legacy? geopolitics.asia/post/not-from-…

Thailand asserts operational control in the 2025 border conflict. With Cambodia’s C2 faltering, Bangkok maintains doctrinal discipline—delaying talks until conditions favor strategic clarity and national objectives. geopolitics.asia/post/dominance…

In July 2025, the Thai-Cambodian border saw its worst clash in years. We unpack the deeper strategy behind it—how power, perception & pressure shaped the outcome, and what must happen next to prevent another misfire. geopolitics.asia/post/the-blood…

Thailand moves forward with its S26T submarine program, signaling a deeper maritime doctrine. We explore the legal impasse, strategic recalibration, and ASEAN’s undersea shift. geopolitics.asia/post/subsurfac…

Thailand & Cambodia may have ceased fire, but the contest endures. 1 month on, symbols become weapons: barbed wire, village protests, and Saab Gripens vs. narrative warfare in Europe. Read more: geopolitics.asia/post/thailand-…

Absolute Resolve signals a Monroe 3.0 shift: a decapitation–extraction raid to seize a national leader, move custody offshore, and withdraw fast. geopolitics.asia/post/monroe-3-…

In transition, still. 🎧

Iran is entering a more serious phase of instability. Protests spread across many cities, shifting from economic anger to calls against the regime. Security forces still hold control, but trust and stability keep eroding. See our 4 scenarios. geopolitics.asia/post/iran-s-se…

US seized a “Russian-flagged” tanker in the North Atlantic—and boarded another “ghost fleet” ship near the Caribbean within hours. Not a one-off. It’s a new doctrine: sanctions enforced by seizure, anywhere at sea. geopolitics.asia/post/a-russian…

Trump’s Venezuela move isn’t just about oil. It’s a hemispheric play: lock the Southern Corridor, push China/Russia/Iran out, and close the Western Hemisphere into a U.S.-controlled industrial loop. The White House energy meeting revealed the blueprint. geopolitics.asia/post/inside-tr…

Growth needs time. In silence. 🎧

Trump’s Davos 2026 remarks on Greenland were less a diplomatic outburst than a stress test of Arctic geopolitics, alliance cohesion, and structural limits on power. A strategic pivot, not a retreat. geopolitics.asia/post/trump-s-h…

What President Trump called “the Discombobulator” may mark a shift in how wars begin. Used in Venezuela to render air defenses inert without heavy fighting, it offers clues to how the U.S. might open a future confrontation with Iran. geopolitics.asia/post/before-ir…

Luma mora, plena cara • The tears of waiting are cherished, for fullness will come • ᛚᚢᛗᚨ ᛗᛟᚱᚨ᛫ ᛈᛚᛖᚾᚨ ᚲᚨᚱᚨ 🎧

Le lacrime dell’attesa Portano forza • The tears of waiting bear their strength (Inspired by Andrea Bocelli's Con Te Partirò) 🎧

Our latest assessment finds that despite senior Iranian leadership losses, regime collapse remains unlikely. Unlike Iraq or Libya, Iran’s layered institutions provide resilience. Retaliatory coordination may weaken, but the system endures. geopolitics.asia/post/out-of-co…

Interview with Steven Olson in Tokyo: early signs of strain within “America First” as U.S. policy on Iran evolves. Covers internal dynamics, strategic risks, and the economic impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions geopolitics.asia/post/interview…