Dakota (@longshortlifer) 's Twitter Profile
Dakota

@longshortlifer

Do your own research, this is not investment advice.

ID: 1419031251097460739

calendar_today24-07-2021 20:27:11

420 Tweet

218 Followers

904 Following

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If you're looking for a port in this storm then I would be buying $NPI (Northland Power). It's trading at 8.8x EBITDA and paying a 6.25% dividend yield. Innergex $INE, a $10B renewable power co, just got taken out by CDPQ (Canadian Pension) for 12x EBITDA or a 55% premium

If you're looking for a port in this storm then I would be buying $NPI (Northland Power).  It's trading at 8.8x EBITDA and paying a 6.25% dividend yield.   Innergex $INE, a $10B renewable power co, just got taken out by CDPQ (Canadian Pension) for  12x EBITDA or a 55% premium
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If $NPI just gets valued at one stnd dev below its 7-yr average valuation range of just ~10.5x its fully built out EBITDA in 2028 of ~$1.8B then there is ~150% upside potential or 30+% IRR. With interest rates set to come down, this thing is asymetric for patient investors

If $NPI just gets valued at one stnd dev below its  7-yr average valuation range of just ~10.5x its fully built out EBITDA in 2028 of ~$1.8B then there is ~150% upside potential or 30+% IRR.  With interest rates set to come down, this thing is asymetric for patient investors
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Lauren Balik Lauren Ballick...one more thing, you dont need to make heroic assumptions on $AAP to see them doing $5/share of EPS in 2026 going to well over $7.50/share in 2028. This business used to do low DD EBIT margins, not a big lift to get to MSD margins. Don't get your balls squeezed!

<a href="/laurenbalik/">Lauren Balik</a> Lauren Ballick...one more thing, you dont need to make heroic assumptions on $AAP to see them doing $5/share of EPS in 2026 going to well over $7.50/share in 2028.  This business used to do low DD EBIT margins, not a big lift to get to MSD margins. Don't get your balls squeezed!
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I think this is a great opportunity to buy $AAP, company at an inflection point. Finished with its store closings, announced intentions to open 100 new large format stores, clean BS and tariffs are a big positive for auto parts retailors. Trading at 20+% normalized FCF yield

I think this is a great opportunity to buy $AAP, company at an inflection point. Finished with its store closings, announced intentions to open 100 new large format stores, clean BS and tariffs are a big positive for auto parts retailors.  Trading at 20+% normalized FCF yield
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Wow…this is first time in many yrs that the Morgan Stanley analyst sees the valuation on $AAP as positively skewed w 55% upside to his bull case on conservative estimates. Here is a snippet from his meeting with mgmt…remember Tariffs should be positive for auto part retailers

Wow…this is first time in many yrs that the Morgan Stanley analyst sees the valuation on $AAP as positively skewed w 55% upside to his bull case on conservative estimates. Here is a snippet from his meeting with mgmt…remember Tariffs should be positive for auto part retailers
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Rumor is that Musk is leaving the Government...does this mean that DOGE is failing? Did he clash with Trump and team? Or is he tired of seeing his companies being abused & loosing money?

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If you are concerned about tariffs, then I would be buying $AAP. Auto part retailers benefit from high tariffs as people to keep cars longer (ie. demand for parts goes up) and it hurts afordability of new cars (hence car parc ages). Northstar here is a 20% normalized FCF yield

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I visited a few $AAP locations this weekend and spoke to store managers. Hearing very positive feedback about management, feeling more empowered, instock way up, stores were better organized, and busy. All said they are seeing positive momentum on the turnaround! Time to buy!

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This is an incredible explanation of how flawed this policy is and how it is more of an extortion scheme than based on sound economic theories. This is a dangerous gamble we are making with most peoples retirement accounts.

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Time to buy $EVO now that short thesis has been discredited…Israeli intelligence firm Black Cube behind the bogus report alleging malfeasance. Big short squeeze coming? next.io/news/casino/is…

Time to buy $EVO now that short thesis has been discredited…Israeli intelligence firm Black Cube behind the bogus report alleging malfeasance.  Big short squeeze coming?
next.io/news/casino/is…
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The turnaround at $AAP is progressing very nicely, today's earnings signals that the floor is in and this is a key inflection point for the company. Stock very cheap on 2026 at 9.0x PE. Very exciting time...get some now!