Functionally....everyone?

Delighted to rediscover that my least favorite website for tracking polls has the redeeming quality of having a nice summary of US presidential election betting markets...

This just reminded me that I was in Spain recently and impressed to see that every surveillance camera is accompanied with a public notice of its existence, complete with an email address where you can request footage. I think it’s a GPDR thing. Pretty cool.

So glad someone crunched these numbers

Base rate strikes again

Does anyone know if this draft vacant property registration policy ever took effect in PDX? Trying to pull all the levers to get an absentee neighbor (perfectly good house vacant for >3 years) off the dime to rent or sell the house. Portland: Neighbors Welcome Michael Andersen portlandonline.com/shared/cfm/ima…

gm portland

Trump and Harris in a dead heat over here, by the way. One forecaster, one vote. metaculus.com/questions/1124…

As I understand it Metaculus has one of the best election forecasting track records: metaculus.com/questions/1124…

Stop thinking about who is going to win the U.S. election. Predict the consequences. The consequences are what should inform political debates. You'll learn a lot if you try, see Metaculus or Manifold

Will the The New York Times needle go live tonight?

My curiosity runs wild re: how rcv affected turnout, user error, etc. Not at all clear here, but directionally consistent with my hunch that increasing difficulty of filling out a ballot would significantly impact participation. Very happy to be wrong but haven't yet seen

Like sports analysts or weather forecasters, GiveWell researchers often make predictions about our research and grants. We launched a page on Metaculus to solicit external feedback on those forecasts. 📆 Deadline is Dec 1, 2024 🏆 Up to $2,250 in prizes bit.ly/3O20RP4

Lower right = correct mentality

Is it common in your circles for people to say “congratulations” when someone mentions they’ve left their job? || Where do you live?

We think it's great that Future Perfect's dylan matthews 🔸, Marina Bolotnikova, Dylan Scott, Oshan Jarow, Bryan Walsh & Izzie Ramirez will share their 2025 forecasts. (And check back on how they did.) So we collaborated with FP so you can forecast along with them: metaculus.com/c/future-perfe…

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI. AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.