Leonard Barrett (@leonardbarrett) 's Twitter Profile
Leonard Barrett

@leonardbarrett

Trying to make forecasting more impactful at @metaculus
🦋 bsky.app/profile/leonar…

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calendar_today01-04-2009 20:35:06

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Leonard Barrett (@leonardbarrett) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Delighted to rediscover that my least favorite website for tracking polls has the redeeming quality of having a nice summary of US presidential election betting markets...

Delighted to rediscover that my least favorite website for tracking polls has the redeeming quality of having a nice summary of US presidential election betting markets...
Leonard Barrett (@leonardbarrett) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This just reminded me that I was in Spain recently and impressed to see that every surveillance camera is accompanied with a public notice of its existence, complete with an email address where you can request footage. I think it’s a GPDR thing. Pretty cool.

This just reminded me that I was in Spain recently and impressed to see that every surveillance camera is accompanied with a public notice of its existence, complete with an email address where you can request footage. I think it’s a GPDR thing. Pretty cool.
Leonard Barrett (@leonardbarrett) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Does anyone know if this draft vacant property registration policy ever took effect in PDX? Trying to pull all the levers to get an absentee neighbor (perfectly good house vacant for >3 years) off the dime to rent or sell the house. Portland: Neighbors Welcome Michael Andersen portlandonline.com/shared/cfm/ima…

Does anyone know if this draft vacant property registration policy ever took effect in PDX?  Trying to pull all the levers to get an absentee neighbor (perfectly good house vacant for &gt;3 years) off the dime to rent or sell the house. <a href="/PNWelcome/">Portland: Neighbors Welcome</a> <a href="/andersem/">Michael Andersen</a> 

portlandonline.com/shared/cfm/ima…
Mike 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@thatmikebishop) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Stop thinking about who is going to win the U.S. election. Predict the consequences. The consequences are what should inform political debates. You'll learn a lot if you try, see Metaculus or Manifold

Leonard Barrett (@leonardbarrett) 's Twitter Profile Photo

My curiosity runs wild re: how rcv affected turnout, user error, etc. Not at all clear here, but directionally consistent with my hunch that increasing difficulty of filling out a ballot would significantly impact participation. Very happy to be wrong but haven't yet seen

GiveWell (@givewell) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Like sports analysts or weather forecasters, GiveWell researchers often make predictions about our research and grants. We launched a page on Metaculus to solicit external feedback on those forecasts. 📆 Deadline is Dec 1, 2024 🏆 Up to $2,250 in prizes bit.ly/3O20RP4

Richard Ngo (@richardmcngo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Is it common in your circles for people to say “congratulations” when someone mentions they’ve left their job? || Where do you live?

Metaculus (@metaculus) 's Twitter Profile Photo

We think it's great that Future Perfect's dylan matthews 🔸, Marina Bolotnikova, Dylan Scott, Oshan Jarow, Bryan Walsh & Izzie Ramirez will share their 2025 forecasts. (And check back on how they did.) So we collaborated with FP so you can forecast along with them: metaculus.com/c/future-perfe…

We think it's great that Future Perfect's <a href="/dylanmatt/">dylan matthews 🔸</a>, <a href="/mbolotnikova/">Marina Bolotnikova</a>, <a href="/dylanlscott/">Dylan Scott</a>, <a href="/OshanJarow/">Oshan Jarow</a>, <a href="/bryanrwalsh/">Bryan Walsh</a> &amp; <a href="/IzzieRamirez/">Izzie Ramirez</a> will share their 2025 forecasts. (And check back on how they did.)

So we collaborated with FP so you can forecast along with them:
metaculus.com/c/future-perfe…
David Shor (@davidshor) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI. AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI.

AI today is less important than it will ever be.

Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.