🧵Fascinating text messages between a Russian operative & his FSB handlers on stoking US political discord have surfaced in a US criminal case, my Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty colleagues Mike Eckel, nemalevich & Mark Krutov have found. Links to Eng and Ru stories at end. A handful of excerpts below. /1

EU, getting the job done.

UK names please!

From me and peter pomerantsev, a new narrative podcast drops today: AUTOCRACY IN AMERICA the first episode is here: theatlantic.com/podcasts/archi…

A brief 🧵about updates and observations about Russian forces' response in Kursk and Russian operations in Donetsk near Pokrovsk. I start by including guidance from Admiral Stockdale, as it's been meaningful to me in my analytic practice, perhaps others will find it helpful too.

Terrible war crimes every day

This is such a painful video to watch. But we must. We stand with the victims. We must remember them. We must support those who are grieving. Yaroslav Bazylevych lost his entire family. Russians killed his wife, Yevheniya, and their three daughters, Yaryna, Daryna, and Emilia.

Seems good. We should do more things like this.

Doing the regular round of Saturday reading and podcast listening, and this remains almost as true today as it was 24th Feb 22. Even amongst military experts who support Ukraine.

Sanctions work

SIS and CIA warn that Russia is waging a “reckless campaign of sabotage” and corrosive disinformation operations. But those are clearly not an “escalation,” right? ft.com/content/252d7c…

The cost of the war for Russia continues to rise. By my rough estimate, Russia spent RUB ~5.3 trillion on "defence" in the first half of 2024, or 36% more than in the first half of 2023. Secret spending (mostly arms procurement) is particularly high. 1/6

Lawlessness is as lawlessness does

Timothy Snyder drops serious wisdom here. Russians thought they only needed to kill "the elite" of Ukraine the rest would accept that they are Russian. Upon discovering it was a fallacy and ALL Ukrainians will fight, it became a genocide operation.

I planning to purchase 4 trucks like these to help Ukrainian engineering units build fortifications. The auctions start on sep 19th, so we have to reach our goal of $120000 before that date. These trucks greatly help with everything including logistics, material and equipment

I would caution about attempting to glean too much about IC confidence and data on specific events from Burns' statements. I'm seeing a lot of very confident talk based on basically no data.

This Fundraiser needs to be supercharged. Imagine how much we could fund if everyone who reads this gave 2,3, or 5 dollars.

Great piece, well worth your time.

Correct. UK complacency is off the charts.