Rob Ford(@robfordmancs) 's Twitter Profileg
Rob Ford

@robfordmancs

Politics Prof, author "The British General Election of 2019" and "Brexitland"
Senior Fellow @UKandEU
My substack - "The Swingometer" - https://t.co/I4x2VwsRoF

ID:216122857

linkhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexitland-Identity-Diversity-Reshaping-Politics/dp/1108473571 calendar_today15-11-2010 21:16:04

167,7K Tweets

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Rob Ford(@robfordmancs) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is horrific. A Kafkaesque tale where everyone involved can see data protection rules but no one can see a desperate son trying to trace and help his stricken mother.

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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Labour's current lead: 22%
Lab 1997: 22%
Con 2010: 15%
Con 1970: 13%
Lab 1964: 9%
*Lab 1992: 6%
Lab 1974: 5%
*Lab 1987: 4%
*Lab 2015: 3%
*Lab 1959: 3%

*went on to lose

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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

We'll find out soon whether that YouGov poll is an outlier, but with it included in the average you get:

* Lowest Con VI since October 2022
* Biggest Labour lead since February 2023
* Highest Reform share ever
* Lowest Lib Dem since March 2023
* Reform in 3rd place for 1st time

We'll find out soon whether that YouGov poll is an outlier, but with it included in the average you get: * Lowest Con VI since October 2022 * Biggest Labour lead since February 2023 * Highest Reform share ever * Lowest Lib Dem since March 2023 * Reform in 3rd place for 1st time
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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Puts Labour's lead (20%) remarkably close to the equivalent point in 1997 (22%), assuming a 31st October election

Puts Labour's lead (20%) remarkably close to the equivalent point in 1997 (22%), assuming a 31st October election
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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Labour's current lead is 14% higher than the best performing opposition which went on to lose (Labour 1992 - 6% lead)

Labour's current lead is 14% higher than the best performing opposition which went on to lose (Labour 1992 - 6% lead)
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Mike Bird(@Birdyword) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is a wild chart. The number of American newspaper employees is down >50% since I started working in a newsroom, and I'm 32 years old.

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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

In summary: removing DK after weighting means the remaining sample is Remain/Labour-skewed

This can be justified by arguing that (a) DKs are choosing to abstain (b) we shouldn't make assumptions about them (c) DKs are distinctive so won't follow the same demographic patterns

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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is similar to the difference found when Opinium changed methodology (opinium.com/resource-cente…) and between YouGov's MRP and standard public polling (HT Chris Curtis Patrick English)

This is similar to the difference found when @OpiniumResearch changed methodology (opinium.com/resource-cente…) and between @YouGov's MRP and standard public polling (HT @chriscurtis94 @PME_Politics)
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Owen Winter(@OwenWntr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Could Conservative 'Don't Knows' be causing the next big polling error? owenwinter.co.uk/2024/01/20/cou…

Looking at Stack Data Strategy data, the decision to weight a survey before vs after excluding 'Don't Knows' is the difference between a 16% and 21% Labour lead:

Could Conservative 'Don't Knows' be causing the next big polling error? owenwinter.co.uk/2024/01/20/cou… Looking at @StackStrat data, the decision to weight a survey before vs after excluding 'Don't Knows' is the difference between a 16% and 21% Labour lead:
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Tortoise(@tortoise) 's Twitter Profile Photo

📈 This week's Trendy podcast 📉

A quarter of all government spending goes on the welfare state.

Rachel Wolf and Sir John Curtice What UK Thinks: EU discuss the challenges government face when it comes to welfare.

pod.fo/e/21491e

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Politics.co.uk(@Politics_co_uk) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🚨 Pick of the week 🚨

Through the looking glass: Inside the topsy-turvy world of the Rwanda Bill

✍️ Sunder Katwala
politics.co.uk/comment/2024/0…

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Sunder Katwala(@sundersays) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Supporting Trump in UK is often more a right-wing political classes, media elites & activist position than a public one - contrary to intuitions/narratives.

2020, GB public preferred Biden 61% to 13%
Tory voters pro-Biden 45-26
Cons members (ConHome survey) were Trump 56-20

Supporting Trump in UK is often more a right-wing political classes, media elites & activist position than a public one - contrary to intuitions/narratives. 2020, GB public preferred Biden 61% to 13% Tory voters pro-Biden 45-26 Cons members (ConHome survey) were Trump 56-20
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Sunder Katwala(@sundersays) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Telegraph headline suggests a new policy is being introduced. It dates to 2005. May/Johnson governments reviewed it from 2018-21 & decided to keep the rules. Can apply for right to work, if case not heard after 12 months, in limited shortage jobs.

Telegraph headline suggests a new policy is being introduced. It dates to 2005. May/Johnson governments reviewed it from 2018-21 & decided to keep the rules. Can apply for right to work, if case not heard after 12 months, in limited shortage jobs.
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Joxley(@Mr_John_Oxley) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The fact that they are 'realising' this a good year after it was an obvious possibility goes some way to explaining why the party is in this mess.

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Sam Freedman(@Samfr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

New post just out:

There are now 100k plus families with children homeless or at risk. In some London boroughs more than 10% of children live in temporary accommodation. What's going on, and how do we stop it?

'The Other Housing Crisis'

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the…

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Will Jennings 🦋(@drjennings) 's Twitter Profile Photo

It is nearly two years since the early warning signs of political danger for the government. news.sky.com/story/amp/cost…

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J(@Beyond_Topline) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So whilst discourse often focuses on Cons winning back Reform voters, based on this, we might well actually see Labour winning over more Green supporters during an election campaign than Cons winning support from Reform...

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J(@Beyond_Topline) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Another interesting thing about this data, by the way:

It shows that 41% of *current* Green voters are favourable to Labour, whilst only 21% of Reform voters are favourable to the Conservatives.

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