1/ Thread: The Wisdom of Crowd In 2007, Michael Mauboussin wrote a paper on the wisdom of crowd, and showed with simple maths and experiments why the crowd can trump individuals. Some of the takeaways were VERY counterintuitive and it materially influenced my thinking.

Brett Such a great line. $DHR

In 2011, Warren Buffett hailed chapter 12 of John Maynard Keynes's The General Theory as one of the most important chapters ever written on investing. He said reading this chapter means "you don't need to read anything else & you can turn off your TV." Here are 9 takeaways ⤵️

Probably one of my hottest takes is that a rise in nominal rates shouldn’t necessarily have an effect on “long duration, growth” stocks. FCF / r-g If r is up, but g is up by the same amount, no change.

21 Sentences that will get you ahead of 95% of traders: 1. Be a risk manager first and a trader second. 2. Taking a trade outside your plan and winning is not a good trade. All you have done now is create bad habits. 3. Every trade is random in the short term. Focus on

4. The Reading Recession: There is more text than ever, yet people are reading ever less and outsourcing writing to chatbots. This is dangerous because language is the basis of thought, and if you can’t read or write well, you won’t think well. h/t George Mack

“Everyone driving slower than you is an idiot and everyone driving faster than you is a maniac.” -George Carlin

ltmleverage Yeah buying long dated garbage gets bad real quick

The necessary dualities are legion. Discipline and adaptability. Arrogance and humility. Frugality and greed. Fear and aggression. Kindness and ruthlessness. The people who have the ability to inhabit those dualities as states are insanely rare. Alix Pasquet

Beautifully written by James Clear:

Harris Perlman This is a good thread. A word of encouragement to newbies: It’s worth putting in the time to learn investing. I know of no other business like it. No employee hassles, no customer hassles, no supplier hassles, no government hassles, no fundraising hassles. No need to market or

“Stay in the game long enough to get lucky” is underrated advice.

The joy of missing out. #investing #life

12 Mental Models to upgrade your thinking

I used to think successful investing was making a huge contrarian call the market would come around to agree with. It’s more like riding a wave that is far bigger and longer than anyone expected.

Lawrence Hamtil Michael Mauboussin Ricky Sandler Investing is hard in part because of the contradictions that need to be balanced and altered. Know what you own…but not too well. Have conviction…but don’t be arrogant. Dont lose money…but don’t be too risk averse.

“The distance between deciding and doing is the single most reliable predictor of whether your life will be extraordinary or ordinary.” These three paragraphs will change your life:

IMO there are increasingly three paths to achieving alpha in a world where everyone is going to start leveraging AI to have an opinion on everything. 1.) Having a nose for where and when to dig. The wider the funnel of potential ideas the harder it is to know what to work on

Valuation trick that has served me well over the years: Start with net cash companies. EBIT / 3 / (Prime +5%) > EV You can LBO the whole business with debt at prime + 5% that is covered 3x. Good for identifying undervalued takeout targets.