Militarily, Russia failed. After nearly four years of war, Putin controls only 20% of Ukrainian territory, failed to erase Ukrainian statehood and triggered NATO’s expansion with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. This is not a battlefield victory. 2/

But Putin’s strategic objective was broader. From the start, he bet that NATO unity would fracture under pressure. Today, the U.S. and Europe openly clash over Ukraine, peace terms, Russia’s role, and even the meaning of “the West.” 3/

Trump’s return to power revived Putin’s original calculation. U.S.-led peace talks collapsed into competing American and European proposals. Trump publicly called Europe “weak” and suggested Ukraine would need to concede territory — echoing core Kremlin demands. 4/

That split is now codified in policy. Trump’s new National Security Strategy reframes Europe as “decaying,” warns of “civilizational erasure,” downgrades Russia as a U.S. adversary and prioritizes “strategic stability” with Moscow over NATO expansion. 5/

While the West fractures, Russia stays aligned. Multiple polls show 70–80% of Russians still support the war. There are no mass anti-war protests — even after catastrophic losses and years of fighting. 6/

Casualties and sanctions haven’t broken the system. The Kremlin relies heavily on volunteers, convicts, and mercenaries. The economy is strained but not collapsing. China and India continue buying Russian oil and gas, blunting Western pressure. 7/

Putin also faces little incentive to compromise. Serious concessions risk backlash from hardline militarists inside the Kremlin. Putin may fear his own hawks more than Western threats — making negotiation unattractive. 8/

The core asymmetry is political, not military. Europe sees Ukraine as an existential fight. Many in Trump’s orbit see it as optional, transactional, or Europe’s burden. That gap is Putin’s real leverage. 9/

Putin may be bleeding men at a historic scale, but if the West no longer acts as a West, that alone could secure him a strategic victory, regardless of what happens on the battlefield. 11X

Source: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/put…

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