CENTRAL BANKERS ANXIOUS IN THE AGE OF BIG FISCAL In today's Bloomberg Markets newsletter, I wrote about Jackson Hole, and what's really on the minds of the world's most influential economic policymakers Sub to the newsletter here: bloomberg.com/account/newsle…

Joe Weisenthal Alex Williams Fair and very humble of you sir. And of course some will argue that the appropriate term for what we'll like see has already been coined: YCC... Guess we'll only know for sure with hindsight though

Initial thoughts on the US-UK trade deal -- First, this is a very small deal. Most of the new US tariffs remain. Most of the restrictions on US exports to the UK (which are modest) remain. Not much changes ... 1/

I'm sensing a certain theme here Jens Nordvig?

Another one...

Agreed. My etr is a bit lower, but lb for lb, $ for $ hard to find better numbers

A good thread from Brad Setser. I am a little higher but there is little doubt we have been on a substantial de-escalation (retreat?) path since April 2...

Nice (2017) article from Heritage Foundation: "The work requirement would reduce Medicaid enrollments, but Medicaid costs might well go up because the eligible ABAWDs would go to the emergency room rather than receive routine care elsewhere." heritage.org/health-care-re…

Ok, budget/tax experts, what is the 2025 & 2026 fiscal deficit based on the latest House reconciliation package AND with current tariffs? Erica York Ernie Tedeschi Donald Schneider Marc Goldwein CRFB.org Kyle Pomerleau George Callas Tax Foundation

Looking forward to the analysis from you all, but my cocktail napkin estimates suggest that in its current form and with current tariffs rates we could get a modest/decent sized fiscal consolidation in the short run even if deficits remain wide over the medium term?

Official (foreign central bank) sales also tapered off. this is counter intuitive, but official sales are correlated with dollar strength not dollar weakness (my friends over Exante Data identified Brazil and India as likely sellers then ... ) 3/

Apropos nothing in particular...

Just taking stock of things given the heightened worries about treasuries right now. 🚨🚨🚨 Starting with my scatter, I hold the view that we're shifting back to the right side (yellow dots), meaning overheating eco should see the curve bear flatten and recessionary path sees

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Indeed much of the narrative in Q4 centered on the expectation of a total absence of fiscal restraint (regardless of which candidate won) and sure enough long end yields did rise by 100bps over the period. But there are other differences between now and then that are notable...

Beyond trade policy, reducing global imbalances will also require US fiscal consolidation. The words “fiscal” and “tariffs” don’t even appear in the G7 communique.

Hey X the bots are out of control

HT Martin Lynge Rasmussen and Exante Data

What the US economy doesn’t need is an oil shock

Is the Fed losing the plot with its dots? Consider: at the June 2024 meeting, the median projection moved from three 25 bps cuts to one cut. The Fed then delivered 4 cuts worth of easing beginning in September. Yet here we are one year later, parsing the dots.