China's Q2 GDP, published a week ago, slightly surprised to the upside at +1.1% q/q. However, the details show that private consumption remains sluggish: its contribution to GDP growth was only 52% — the fifth consecutive quarter below the pre-Covid norm.

Who’s buying Italian debt? It has actually changed a lot since 2020: From 2020 to mid-2022, it was essentially the ECB (post-Covid QE). From mid-2022 to 2024, domestic investors took over — mainly non-financials, i.e. Italian households. This year, it’s all foreigners.

German IFO: the "Prices vs previous month” component is back into negative territory in June. The H1 timid bounce back is already over.

⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w30 (2025) ⚠ *HT Neil Sethi, Holger Zschaepitz, SentimenTrader, RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research, Stephane Deo #SPX #Stocks #Speculation #Employment #Inflation #Bonds christophe-barraud.com/top-10-macro-f…

Important legal point flagged by Frederik Ducrozet. Also: in 2024, the US provided 16.1% of EU oil and 45.3% of LNG imports—worth €61bn (42bn oil + 19bn LNG) out of €375bn in total energy imports. Jumping to €750bn over 3 years is technically impossible—we lack the infrastructure.

An interesting comment from a Former $META employee. ENERGY is the biggest bottleneck right now. Even if $META wants to spend $100-$150B on CapEx for AI infrastructure, they can't. It is not just $NVDA. Transformers, power equipment, cooling equipment, and the availability of

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey shows a further deterioration of the job market as perceived by households.

The ECB just released its wage tracker, noting that “wage pressures continue to ease”: Q1-25 wages rose just +1.7% y/y, down from a 5.2% peak in Q4-20. The last pocket of inflation resilience in Europe comes from some service sectors, softer wages suggests a fast decline ahead.

Greek unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% in May. Lowest in 17 years. This follows 9.6% in January and ….. 28.3% back in July 2013. Impressive!

Average government job creations per month: - Under Biden = +39,1k - Under Trump = -3,8k Quite a change.

Once again: thanks very much Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 for the citation!

Usual monthly chart, usual message: more rate cuts than hikes in July. That’s 20 months in a row now.

Euro Area misery index: close its all time low.

This is what happened to profits in the 1920s and 30s when big tariff rises hit home Profit shocks the size of which we have only seen in the GFC in the century since.

September FOMC meeting: Mr Markets keeps hesitating between a rate cut and no change. Next key data point to watch: CPI on August 12th.

You’ve been told: Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 73k in July. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics also gives a 90% confidence interval: it ranges from -62.8k to +208.8k. That's a 271k range — almost 4 times the headline number!

US federal budget balance: July data confirm once again that DOGE was a roaring success. The brown line — federal outlays, aka govt expenses — is plummeting. Oh wait, actually… it’s not.

The French/Italian 10Y spread saga continues: it briefly touched 10 bp intraday today. It was 113 at the beginning of last year. Forzzzza ragazzzzzziii. Un piccolo sforzo in più. Lo spread zero è vicino.

Bon, la macchina 😍😍😍 est prête. Y’a plus qu’à. Fini les deux semi-IRONMAN du printemps et autres jeux d’enfants. On passe au rayon adulte #IronMan #IMCopenhaguen Alexandre Baradez Alain Pitous

12h 24m 12s Et une belle médaille de viking. 😜