OUCH! Nasdaq 100 fared worst weekly drop since Nov 2022 as US 10y yields pushed >4.6%.

To put things into perspective: Fewer than 30% of S&P 500 members trading above the 50-day moving average.

Good Morning from #Germany , where trade w/Iran has reached an almost complete standstill in recent years. The rolling 12-month volume of exports and imports amounts to just €1.5bn, at least according to official trade statistics. Some trade may be conducted via neighboring…

Bad week for liquidity: #Fed balance sheet assets fell by $32.6bn to $7.405tn. The TGA rose by $91.6bn to a weekly avg of $796.5bn as tax payments boosted the TGA. Participation in the reverse repo facility fell by $5bn to $440bn.

The dollar's share of allocated FX reserves has fallen by 14ppts since 2001 amidst challenges from an increasingly multipolar world. But the Dollar is still the most dominant player. Morgan Stanley expects the dollar to retain its dominance: 'We think that investment theses…

Good Morning from Germany, which may have avoided another recession. Acc to Bundesbank forecasts, GDP may have expanded in Q1 thanks to a pick-up in manufacturing, rising exports & surging construction at the start of the year. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Good Morning from Germany where the Greens have once again lost their status as the people's party. Latest Forsa poll shows Greens at 12%, lowest level since June 2018. 'The Greens have thus reverted to their traditional status as a clientele party for the upper education and

One of my favorite charts, which shows very nicely the consequences of the rise in yields for the stock market. Big Tech vs Non-Profitable Tech (long-duration stocks) curve tracks perfectly the US 10y yield rise.

Love that quote from today's Jared Dillian: 'I’ve seen some crazy things in markets, but I have not yet seen 2yr yields go up 7bps after a direct attack on Israel from Iran.'

OUCH! IMF has cut #Germany 's econ growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from…

Mind the gap: My colleague Tobias Kaiser has written a story about #France 's budget & public debt problems and the country's decline. Rating agency Fitch already cut country's credit rating from AA to AA- last year, rating agency S&P has placed France under review.…

Good Morning from #Germany , where wholesale prices starting to rise again. Compared to prev mth, prices rose by 0.2%, driven by commodity prices such as cocoa, coffee & live animals. Compared to prev year, wholesale prices still 3% lower. They are an important precursor to

OOPS! US 10y yields jump to 4.6% after hot US retail sales. Mar retail sales rose 0.7% MoM on the headline vs +0.4% expected, while the control group beat by even more: +1.1% vs +0.4%.

Good Morning from #Germany , which today marks its first anniversary of the nuclear phase-out. The price of electricity (measured by 1y ahead power price) is 37% lower one year after the phase-out. Supporters are celebrating this as a great success. However, the drop in…

#Bitcoin ‘halving’ will deal a $10bn blow to crypto miners. Cryptocurrency’s update will slash new supply in late April. Competition for favorable electric rates growing from AI firms. Some traders are betting that mining stocks will fall. Total short interest, dollar value of…

Crude #Oil has muted open following Iran’s strike against Israel. Brent & WTI trade a tad lower.

Hey guys, don't miss my newsletter. It deals w/question of why mkts have reacted relatively calmly to attacks on Israel. And, it's about largest investment manager BlackRock & its power over mkts. Holds shares worth $921bn in 30 Dow comps & $90bn in Dax.
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#Bitcoin fluctuates after Iran attack. Largest token slid 8% on Saturday, the most since March 2023. Has recovered some of the losses.

Israeli stocks open slightly higher after Iran drone attack foiled. TA 35 index is up 0.5% after opening but trade remains nervous. However, stocks in the Arab world are down. Saudi Arabia’s main bourse opened 1.2% lower. The fact that Iranian officials called the attack a