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Most energy investors are asleep when it comes to opportunities in biofuels, the only ‘renewables’ segment to remain alive & kicking under Trump. Provides an uncorrelated offset to commodity exposure from E&Ps. Limited SREs would be very bullish for the sector. Nice thread here

High yield credit markets do not always price securities correctly although often have a longer term focus on fundamentals. E&P capex trends drive dayrates and utilization and explain why Jackup credit spreads (SHLFDI, BORRNO) are wider than Deepwater floaters (RIG, NEFINA, VAL)

Just thinkin'... If sharebuybacks are the chief plan going forward, then $MEG shareholders should (1) fire entire BoD & mgmt, which costs ~$4/bo to maintain (~$2/bo in SBC), while keeping the engineers who have kept SOR low, and (2) let share buybacks proceed automatically...

The divergence between oil prices and OECD inventories is widening. Eventually, either inventories or prices will increase a lot.

My analysis of Noble Corp. in our continuing deep dive into offshore. hfir-ideas.com/p/idea-noble

Time spreads holding up before the OPEC+ meeting despite front month weakness.

CNQ.TO yield looking attractive among the strongest Canadian dividend payers.

$NE management was out talking with investors last week. They were confident deepwater-floater market is strong in 2026, boosting earnings & FCF. They are committed to the dividend and have sufficient FCF to support the current dividend rate (8.1% yield) in 2025 and 2026. $VAL

45z PTC faring better than the other clean energy tax credits with an extension. Bullish for biofuel producers $DAR $CLMT

Noble's acquisition of Diamond in 2024 also provides cash flow support via ~$100mm of annual synergies. As of 1Q25, Noble has realized 70% of these synergies $NE Full recurring synergy cash flows are like adding a high $400k's dayrate fixture at full utilization for 10+ years

$NE bags a 6 well (+2 option) contract for one of their CJ70 Jack-up in the North Sea for a CCS project. Sparse with details but 6 wells is likely going to be 1Y+ or so and CJ70 means good rates normally. Interesting that NE has a foot in the CCS space now! $VAL $BORR $TDW

Don't get too emotional about the news headlines. OPEC+ has not completely abandoned market management. #oott #com

Top Projects 2025 report put out by GS upstream team is a great piece of research. Kudos to them Couple interesting charts. Solid amount of supply growth coming from non-OPEC, ex-US shale. These are medium/long-cycle projects that are still coming online next couple years

Adam Waterous on value investing in a commodity business. Great perspective from a master practitioner. $SCR.TO youtube.com/watch?v=SmdAWu…

Another blow to the environment lobby & their well honed lawfare practices. Positive for oil & gas midstream.

My take on the opportunity in offshore drilling and the best names to play the upcycle. hfir-ideas.com/p/deep-dive-in…