Volatility breeds uncertainty, and uncertainty gives birth to pessimism. Dumb Money Confidence has plunged, while Smart Money Confidence has jumped. The spread between them is now 2nd only to the re-opening after the 9/11 attack.

What you get selling short the Nasdaq 100 on its looming death cross. There were 3 good signals - prick of internet bubble, GFC, and pandemic. Best of luck.

The VIX cycle from > 50 to < 30 is on track to trigger today. A bear killer.

“The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Okay, now it triggered (barely).

This is the first VIX close under 30 in two weeks. Even during bear markets, the S&P 500 usually saw 2-4 weeks of relief.

Front-month VIX futures spiked more than 20% above 3rd-month futures. We only see that at peaks in uncertainty as traders price in an imminent and significant rise in volatility. It has now receded to near parity. From available data, each was a bottoming phase in stocks.

There have been 25,525 trading days since 1928. Today, more stocks in the S&P 500 advanced than on all but 7 of those days.

Forget the Zweig breadth thrust - the NYSE just triggered a SuperZweig. Both extremes were significantly further than the thresholds of the original signal. The S&P 500 returned more than +20% the year following every prior thrust. Talk about a bear killer.

It has since recovered above 50. Since the S&P 500 became a 500-stock index, the returns were good. In the 1930s, not so much.

Watch for follow-through over the next week. The Nasdaq had a giant thrust off a new low. After others, if it didn't lose more than -3% within the following week, its 1-year returns were (mostly) exceptional. If it did, then not so much.

Remarkably, this is only the 5th time the health care ETF $XLV has closed positive on a day it fell to a 52-week low.

The put/call ratio isn't low *everywhere*. In health care $XLV and energy $XLE, yesterday's readings were among the highest in 10 years.

Both SPY and QQQ are on track for perfect weeks. Rising every day for an entire 5-day calendar week. This doesn't happen during bear markets.

This is your periodic reminder about the big 3 ratings agencies. Regarding sovereign, index, and sector ratings (especially if there's a cluster), they are exceptional contrary indicators over monthly+ time frames.

Price overlay for context... 🤷‍♂️

The least distorted way to consider this data is using available cash (credits minus margin debt) as % of market cap. Is it low? Yep. Has that been a good sell signal? Nope.

The 2020s are shaping up to be the worst decade EVER for government bonds If this were happening in the stock market investors would be losing their minds Why aren't more fixed income investors freaking out about this? awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/is-thi…

So far this year, the cumulative gain by buying a down day in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and holding it only for the next session is +29%. That's second only to 2020 and ahead of the year 2000. The S&P 500's cumulative +18% return is tied for the 4th-highest since 1928. Heavy