Second highest vote in the poll was option selling pitfalls. I write a lot about this so thought I'd just link a bunch of topics together

The Jan 13 gap fill forecast was spectacular, especially for those focused on "what will the market do next" Now do yourself a huge favor that will last at least a year or two. In this podcast Cem Karsan 🥐 covers in depth: 1/the recent jump in short term VIX due to the SPX

How is the ConnorRSI performing Out-of-Sample? In 2014, Larry Connors and his team introduced the Connors RSI (CRSI), a technical oscillator designed to identify short-term mean-reversion opportunities in U.S. stock markets. Unlike the traditional Relative Strength Index

- Everybody looks at the price action and then comes up with an answer for 'why', but the truth of the matter is ... 👇 Check out today’s CNBC appearance with Rick Santelli on Power Lunch, live from the @CBOE floor. Link below to watch!

The December Risk Update is up at the Convex Strategies website - "Deja Vu". We've been drawn back again to our memories of the unique 1995-1999 period. Signs of a shake-up to existing global systems just keep arising. Enjoy. convex-strategies.com/2025/01/16/ris…

Okay I promised I'd write more about this, here it is. Dividend swaps and futures are a deceptively simple product that give the owner an exposure to the amount of dividends paid by a stock or an index over a specified time period. They exist because of structured products.

The market is searching for a short-term bottom, says Cem Karsan 🥐. When will it find one? 🥐 Cem Karsan joins Oliver Renick LIVE to share his latest market 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗯𝘀: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

"The Fed caused all this post-COVID inflation" remember when clowns were screaming about QE in 2008, buying inflation swaps and shorting the 10y treasury all the way to 4.5% yield, got liquidated en masse because inflation stayed below 2% for 15 years

They scream about everything the Fed does. Everything is a policy mistake, behind the curve, moving too fast, whatever. Central Banks responsible for them not getting laid. They are deeply ignorant people.

oh takeaways... 1) i love my friends in derivatives sales, but hedge funds run by ex derivatives salespeople = red flag 2) you cannot risk manage a derivatives portfolio to Greeks ("I'm flat vega, it's fine!") or historical VaR ("this doesn't lose money most of the time!")

> President of the United States drops a meme coin on Friday night. Retweet's his wife's meme coin next day > ahead of inauguration where he has 4 more years > "guys this is the last bullish news we will get" > sells everything crazy that didn't work out

ETFs are not always better than mutual funds. The ability to guarantee NAV for entry/exit and the ability to close the fund means you can trade less liquid/harder to hedge stuff. And if the strategy wasn't going to be tax efficient in an ETF in the first place...

I also spoke about this on the podcast with Grant Williams . PB net leverage exposure continues to grow, not only across firms like IB, but across the entire street. This is a key positional function that drives the bid for volatility during spot declines. Aka volatility’s

Patrick Barkio youtu.be/-o7XTmd89KM?si…

As @nope_its_lily mentioned: Be young and smart and cocky and think you know a lot of stuff Path 1: ask a lot of questions, be open minded and nice, find that extremely senior people on here will mentor you, become CIO of a not-tiny risk taking institution at a crazy young age

The CIOs and senior portfolio managers are on here because we like teaching and educating and we have already had our successes, its a completely absurd free resource if you know how to use it

Market Making Illiquid, Non-Fungible Assets (S7E14) Today I’m talking to Thao Tran (Thao), Co-founding Partner at Vamient Capital. This episode was born from a question I had watching the NFT market place: how do you make markets in illiquid, non-fungible assets? Clearly

here come the good headlines already

Okay the people asked for a trade sizing discussion. I'll mostly stick to giving my perspective as an institutional derivatives manager, which is different from the thought process of an individual trader but hopefully interesting.

The dispersion trade: What is it and why should you care? A 🧵 Per Goldman: "Over the last 5 trading sessions, the realized volatility for the SPX index is ~15 (0.9% daily move) Over the last 5 trading sessions, the realized vol for the avg SPX stock is ~45 (2.8% daily move)