“Jim Lucier is the most dead-pan analyst I know in Washington.” – Bloomberg TV Surveillance anchor tom keene Thanks for hosting Capital Alpha’s James Lucier this morning!

Fred Lawrence believes the scale of independent oil exploration/production will make it difficult for an XOM-OXD merger to meaningfully reduce competition: “People just think about big oil and they forget that there’s a very healthy independent community out there competing."

Capital Alpha's James Lucier joined CNBC's "The Exchange" yesterday to discuss the leadership limbo in the House. Thanks for hosting, Kelly Evans! cnbc.com/video/2023/10/…

Ian Katz on the Fed's anticipated proposal to lower the cap for debit card transaction fees: "The Fed will be trying to thread the needle, reducing the cap enough to mollify the merchants without excessively punishing its own regulated entities." Pete Schroeder Reuters

Robert Kaminski discusses the scope of the Biden Administration's new executive order on AI and the likelihood of Congressional action toward regulation. "It is not the White House's first word on AI and won't be the last." Claire Williams American Banker americanbanker.com/news/bidens-or…

Ian Katz says that even if the Fed adjusts the proposed tightening of capital regulations before a rule is finalized, the changes made would not satisfy bankers. “It seems clear that a lawsuit is likely." Emily Flitter The New York Times

Byron Callan discusses the factors that will bear on U.S. defense sentiment in the coming year in an outlook piece for Defense News. Read the full article, “Budgets, presidents and the defense industry: What to watch in 2024,” below. defensenews.com/outlook/2023/1…

Ian Katz doesn't expect Barr’s signature bank capital overhaul to pass without making compromises to appease Powell: “There is no precedent that we can recall of a significant regulatory matter that has had this level of disagreement at the Fed.” Katanga Johnson Craig Torres

“The FDA has faced widespread criticism for its slow pace of reviewing millions of e-cigarette marketing submissions and is unlikely to want to place itself in a similar position with a high volume of LDT (laboratory developed test) filings,” Capital Alpha’s Rob Smith said.

Capital Alpha's Rob Smith "imagine[s] challenges to Medicare’s coverage determination process from companies that have had trouble getting insurers to pay for them, such as digital therapeutics or wearables." Shelby Livingston  via Endpoints News

Per Ian Katz, the confirmation timeline for Christy Goldsmith Romero depends on "whether the Republicans try to peel off a couple of Democrats against her. They won't vote for her, but that's not the same as going all out to stop her." From Pete Schroeder, Michelle Price via Reuters

While the trend of increased defense spending is likely to hold up over the next few years, Byron Callan notes: “It is a cyclical business. As much as people talk about 10- year demand cycles, politics can change and security assessments can change and so too can defence demand.”

Byron Callan expects a CR to December, with next steps TBD by the outcome of this year’s elections, and expanded defense spending: “Congress is likely to add to the FY25 budget request, though impacts on contractors will be uneven.” From Valerie Insinna via Breaking Defense

James Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners says investors shouldn't discount the possibility of trillions in new corporate tax hikes in 2025 marketwatch.com/story/harris-d…

Even in the case of a GOP sweep in November, “Republicans will be reluctant to tear out the IRA root and branch,” says Capital Alpha's James Lucier. “There will be a lot of [clean energy] projects in Republican districts they do not want to uproot." bloomberg.com/features/2024-…

Capital Alpha’s Rob Smith cautions against reading too much into Trump’s policy change. In his view, international drug reference pricing is way too instinctual for Trump to close the door on any potential approach to applying the concept in the US. nytimes.com/2024/10/08/hea…

Consensus may think Trump would be positive for U.S. defense. Byron Callan disagrees: “Put aside the rhetoric on, ‘oh, the GOP is strong on defense’ and look at the reality of what people are saying... There's a pretty profound gap between those two points of view.” Jeremy Bogaisky

Capital Alpha's Ian Katz: "Like most presidents, neither Harris nor Trump have very strong views on financial regulation that we're aware of. So that means most policy will depend on who exactly the regulators are." From Claire Williams via American Banker americanbanker.com/news/president…

Capital Alpha's kim monk discusses why it’s possible President-elect Trump could end up supporting Biden’s proposal that Medicare and Medicaid cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Victor Reklaitis via MarketWatch

Without an extension, ACA subsidies expire at end of 2025. Kim Monk remarks "it’s unfortunate because there are any number of compromises that could be crafted to better target the subsidies in exchange for extending them and stabilizing the market" CNBC via Stephanie Dhue