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What does the total fertility rate mean? It's a common misconception to think the TFR is a prediction of the average number of children women will have over their lifetimes. But it's not. 🧵

See the full discussion: tobyord.com/writing/half-l…

Check out Wilson King website and projects here (I also like his work on the DHS survey) wilson-king.com/research

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will conduct a nationwide Household Income Survey in 2026—the first of its kind—to collect detailed data on income distribution in India. To guide this effort, MoSPI has constituted a Technical Expert Group (TEG) under

New QJE paper showing that industrial policy in South Korea had significant positive effects across industrial development outcomes in targeted industries, as it promoted the ascent of new industries and new patterns of specialization and helped boost labour productivity:

1/Epoch AI doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13

Tricky Andy Matuschak andymatuschak.org/stillness/

A Flawed Narrative on the Impact of Globalization on World Poverty open.substack.com/pub/pranabbard…

some friends allow you to unfold fully in their presence; this is a gift for becoming

Very happy to get an early copy of this (my piece on Dune is the final chapter)

Irresponsible reporting from The Hindu The Indian Express Business Standard & others about Indian being 4th equal country. They compare India’s CONSUMPTION inequality Gini of 25.5 with INCOME inequality of other equal countries. INCOME inequality of India is 62! Thread explaining: 1/8

India is not the 4th most equal country in the world. We re-did correct & comparable calculations: India ranks 176 (& not 4) out of 216 on income inequality. On calorie consumption inequality, it ranks 102 out of 185. I explain this in The Wire m.thewire.in/article/econom…

New Substack post: we've already heard that the Abundance agenda is just a rehash of neoliberalism, and that's why it's bad, and that it's not neoliberalism, and that's why it's good. What if it was actually just neoliberalism v2… but that was good? open.substack.com/pub/someunplea…

Very encouraging data in Mint on the social impact of industrial investment in one of the most backward districts of Tamil Nadu. livemint.com/industry/tamil…

New newsletter: The death of partying in the USA The latest American Time Use Survey came out last month. I wanted to follow up on Ellen Cushing's declaration that Americans need to party more. The new data confirms: America's social crisis is dire. - Between 2003 and 2024, the

India is nowhere close to being the "4th most equal country in the world". To the contrary, it might even be one of the most unequal. #BillionaireRaj Read this "Explained Economics" piece by Udit Misra & don't let propaganda fool you. Short thread with main issues at hand.

What virtue is undersupplied today? I drafted my answer here and am very curious how others would answer this question! nanransohoff.substack.com/p/what-virtue-…

There is *so much* variation even across Europe on which immigrants come in and how their children do. Figure (Boustan et al) shows rank gap vs. native-born for immigrants and their children. One of the richest graphs around. What is going on here? 1/

Yes. Writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Writing *is* thinking. Students, academics, and anyone else who outsources their writing to LLMs will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.

Excited that our (apoorva.lal, Yiqing Xu, Gary ziwen_Zu) paper won the Political Analysis' 2024 Editor's Choice award! It was really a lot of work (we started this in 2018!), so nice to see we've had some impact on the field. It's also open access. cambridge.org/core/journals/…