ElectionRecon (@electionrecon) 's Twitter Profile
ElectionRecon

@electionrecon

Welcome to the Oasis of Reality! 3 Politicos, Combat Vets & Election Geeks providing bias free analysis. Over 25+ years combined campaign experience.

ID: 1263292239528161280

linkhttp://www.electionrecon.com calendar_today21-05-2020 02:15:25

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Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I just want to say — if you’re one of the few, the proud, the deranged that’s still following every vote dump in #CA13, #CA45, the North Carolina Supreme Court race, and the ranked choice voting repeal ballot initiative in Alaska — just know that I see you, and you’re a real one.

Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) 's Twitter Profile Photo

New ballots in Merced break massively for Adam Gray as he pulls 227 votes within incumbent John Duarte in CA13. Have to look into the data to see what types of ballots were dropped and how many are reamining.

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#CA45 Update - Orange County's update adds 1,461 votes that break 52.8%/47.2% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him another 83 votes and increasing his lead over incumbent Republican Michelle Steel to 397 votes.

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🚨 #CA13 Update - San Joaquin County, the bluest portion of the district, posts a small update of 45 votes that incumbent Republican John Duarte wins 53.3%/46.7%, sending his lead rocketing by an additional 3 votes from 348 votes to 351 votes.

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#AD58 Update - Riverside County adds another 1,515 votes that only narrowly break for Democrat Clarissa Cervantes 50.2%/49.8%, trimming Republican Leticia Castillo's lead by 7 votes down to 479 votes.

Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) 's Twitter Profile Photo

House Republicans will likely fall short of the 222 seats they got in 2022 but their winning margin was more "comfortable" this time around: Tipping point seat PA-07 (R +1.05) vs the 0.69% margin in IA-03, 2022's tipping point.

ElectionRecon (@electionrecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

OUR TAKE: We disagree. Tonight was a slight miss for Gray (D), (pending what we expect to be a negligible SJ county drop), just like last night was a slight miss for him, after a major win for Gray on Tuesday. This one remains tilt Duarte (R) for us.

Joshua Whitfield (@joshlwhitfield) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Today was a general wash in my book. It remains tilt Duarte (R) by the most slimiest of margins in my book, and I mean S-L-I-M. #CA13

Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) 's Twitter Profile Photo

John Duarte and Adam Gray are separated by 201 votes after today's updates in a race that won't be called until 2027 at this rate of counting

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

After tonight's updates, California is likely down to ~228,000 unprocessed ballots. Counties w/the most remaining: 24,846 SLO(w) 21,906 Orange 19,700 LA 17,450 San Bernardino 16,050 Sacramento 14,063 Shasta 12,000 San Diego 10,767 Lake 9,500 Riverside 9,104 San Joaquin

Joshua Whitfield (@joshlwhitfield) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This might be a fatal wound for Duarte. Still not callable, but it’s certainly (and solidly) tilt Gray (D) over Duarte (R) now. #CA13

Dave Wasserman (@redistrict) 's Twitter Profile Photo

New: Adam Gray (D) overtakes #CA13 Rep. John Duarte (R) by 105 votes w/ new Merced Co. ballot drop. Still way too close to call w/ a few thousand left, but a huge development for Dems.

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#CA45 Republican Michelle Steel's uninterrupted streak of losing the post-election day vote updates continues, with Orange County's update adding 612 votes that break 52%/48% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him 24 votes and increasing his lead to 613 votes.

Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Exactly 3 weeks after election day, Adam Gray has taken the lead in #CA13 for the first time since election night, and may just hold on to it with extremely little ballots remaining to count.

Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🚨 #CA13 Update - Stanislaus County is in, adding 1,349 votes that break 52.85%/47.15% for Democrat Adam Gray, netting him 77 votes to increase his lead over incumbent Republican John Duarte to 182 votes.