Is a “soft landing” possible? In this new working paper with Anton Cheremukhin we contribute to the debate by bringing to the table a new theoretical argument that says that it is not only possible but reasonable in the current context of the labor market: 🧵(1/8)

The 3 critical paragraphs from Daniel Ek's Spotify layoff email 1) This seems abrupt b/c our earnings were good. But our cost structure is broken 2) Our cost structure was from when money was free. That era is over 3) No more "work around the work" Honest, direct, no bullshit

Cotton Candy and Pink Lemonade: A new breed of e-cigarette has addicted teenagers and confounded regulators worldwide by offering vapes in cheap, disposable packages reut.rs/4863Huo

10yr TIPS yield back under 2%

"a November report from the Council on Criminal Justice, suggest that shoplifting outside major cities like New York has decreased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic."

I suspect today’s FOMC isn’t too meaningful. Powell should come out, talk tough, say the mission isn’t accomplished, hold the line on rates and go enjoy the holidays.

To those who doubted the soft landing You doubted the indomitable will of the American spirit. You doubted the strength of our institutions You doubted us - we nation of strivers, and believers, together in a land of opportunity May your account go to 0 God bless America

The Powell pivot begins. Dec 1: “It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.” Dec 13: Rate cuts are something that “begins to come into view” and “clearly is a topic of discussion.” What a difference two weeks can make. wsj.com/economy/centra…

Jefferies: HF long/short spread is -10% over two days. That's the 2nd worst two day move ever. Stating the obvious, but max pain/chase. 3+ standard dev moves all over the place...pain/chase levels are 10 out of 10

Apollo Global Management is setting up a company that will give investors exposure to asset-backed loans generated by its credit operations for an initial investment of as little as $2,500. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Markets

"...purchase of a $7.2 billion portfolio of super-prime recreational vehicle (RV) loans from BMO Bank National Association, part of BMO Financial Group (“BMO”). Concurrently with the sale, BMO purchased approximately $6.4 billion of senior notes collateralized by the sold loans."

$COOP Mr. Cooper late last week revealed that the cybersecurity “incident” disclosed in October is going to be more costly than originally thought. Moreover, the publicly traded lender/servicer said a forensic review found that “personal information relating to substantially all

The vibes they are a-changin’

One reason why working class people resist upward social mobility: many disapprove of the duplicity, savvy self-promotion, and artful deceit required to advance in the world of the upper-middle-class professional. a.co/d/3GTxEm1

They're coming for your job. Pod Bois specifically

How are builders looking at home prices for next year? Flat to modestly up.

Problem solving isn't taught, but click on my thread if you want me to teach you.. hate this place

JJ redick will not work out for the Lakers. Terrible decision for them, not terrible decision for him. Just noting it here.

Financial Researcher/Analyst is now a prompt on Perplexity Labs