Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profileg
Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

Helping people make smarter & more disciplined decisions with their money. | Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author @pragcap 📖| PM of $DSCF 💰

ID:22088714

linkhttps://disciplinefunds.com/ calendar_today27-02-2009 01:00:36

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Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Merry Christmas to everyone.

Even the people who think that printing $7 trillion didn’t contribute to inflation!!

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Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Dow The theory was that rate hikes would slow credit and investment. Which is the exact thing that happened. The people who got this wrong are the MMT types who weirdly claim rate hikes add to demand.

This was textbook.

@mark_dow The theory was that rate hikes would slow credit and investment. Which is the exact thing that happened. The people who got this wrong are the MMT types who weirdly claim rate hikes add to demand. This was textbook.
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Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profile Photo

My hyperinflation analysis from 2021 has aged pretty well. Inflation has been a bit stickier than I originally expected, but a high sustained inflation (or hyperinflation) was never a high probability outcome.

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T-bill & chill? Intermediate gov’t bonds? Global 60/40? What’s the best portfolio allocation right now? 🤔

🎥 Cullen Roche outlines his favorite asset classes across specific time horizons with Oliver Renick:

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I’ll be on Schwab Network network with Oliver Renick in a few minutes to talk about the huge move in rates and where we might be headed next.

schwabnetwork.com

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Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Here's our 2023 & 2024 financial planning checklist.

I hope it helps you get better organized and disciplined for 2024 and the years ahead.

disciplinefunds.com/2023/12/20/yea…

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Cullen Roche(@cullenroche) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Why is the stock market a 17 year instrument?

I calculate it using a break-even analysis, but it also makes sense from a corporate structure perspective. The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company is 21 years. Companies grow and accrue profits over VERY long time horizons.

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Surprisingly dovish Fed statement.

Some might say this is an Arthur Burns moment (easing off too early). I don’t think so. Hinting at 3 cuts next year is marginally easier policy and high 4s is still tight enough to continue cooling demand.

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I suspect today’s FOMC isn’t too meaningful. Powell should come out, talk tough, say the mission isn’t accomplished, hold the line on rates and go enjoy the holidays.

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We’re now in the opposite environment I warned of in 2021 when the lagging shelter CPI was understating CPI. It’s now overstating it.

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The ex-shelter view is useful in this environment because we know that real-time rent data is negative while the lagging BLS CPI shelter component is still at 6.5%.

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