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This is a little misleading. Due to ageing, output per person is becoming worse for comparisons of economic performances of countries, esp. for Japan. Better: output per working-age adult. See the recent article by Fernández-Villaverde et al. nber.org/papers/w31914

I think this is an important insight for the labor market literature, one IO economists have been (w/o success) pushing for some time. The key insight from IO is that that concentration is an outcome rather than an input. Some thoughts below... 1/

CO₂ emissions per kWh in electricity production

Citizens: *Learn the intricacies of the US electoral system and swing states* Also citizens: "Commissioner-what ?"

Recently some prominent people have argued that 19thcentury tariffs were beneficial for American manufacturing. In our new NBER working paper, Alex Klein (Sussex) and I argue: there is no evidence for this assertion. 1/N nber.org/papers/w33100

But I have the (possibly naive) view that people are better off if they're thinking hard about what the truth is and then they can maximize accordingly. They can possibly craft better messages. They can identify real problems. They can evaluate policies better.

Germany had the steepest "vibecession" according to the What Worries the World survey. Not a good situation to be in with elections approaching. ipsos.com/en/what-worrie…

Wow. This New York Fed finds that accounting for global spillovers, AD shocks played an important role in European inflation: AD shocks contributed 5.79% in 2021 and 9.99% in 2022 to annual inflation. Explains some of the similarities across countries. Joe Hazell Joseph Gagnon

If you look beyond tech giants. US economy isn't that special: - Banking? Worse than EU - Insurance? Worse - Manufacturing? EU growing faster But superstars change everything. 5 tech firms spend 2x more on R&D than entire EU public sector. 3/10

Great to see our paper “Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics” out in the The Review of Economic Studies . With Philip Jung & Ben Hartung, we revisit the old question of labor market research of the effects of unemployment insurance reforms on unemployment rates. 1/10

The Economist: „Trump takes America's trade policies back to the 19th century“ - Sheer folly.

*Trade war: my theory of the case* 1. What is the goal/ideal outcome/trump admin hopes: 10% tariff across the board with no retaliation + direct non-tariff favors from other countries to settle this at 10% + a possible full-scale bilateral trade war with China. (1/n)

Peter Navarro's complaints about BMW reveal how poorly thought out protectionism is agglomerations.substack.com/p/tired-of-win…

Vincent Geloso First - this is more my area of expertise - it is frankly pretty extreme to claim that theoretical arguments can do anything convincing on this issue. The theoretical channels for government investment to be complementary to private investment are so ample that any argument to

Fantastic idea. Noah Smith 🐇 could finally stop writing explainers about imports and GDP.

Another day, another thread in which Michael Pettis espouses his made-up "beggar-thy-neighbor" theory of trade to justify protectionism. Let's dig in once again to see why this theory is wrong. [1/x]

I don't have more interesting things to do today, so why the hell not... 1) Advocating for protectionism as a response to other countries' market interventions is still protectionism.

To anyone who wants to know why I've been criticizing the way our profession has elevated Autor et al's "China shock" paper, look no further than Treasury Secretary Bessent's op-ed in the WSJ on Monday: [1/x]

1/Epoch AI doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13