UAE announces decision to exit OPEC & OPEC+ #WamNews wam.ae/a/bzxzuh7

🚨🚨🚨🚨FULL STATEMENT: UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1. "... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..."

The UAE will leave OPEC/OPEC+ in May — a stunning move for the oil superpower, especially given the current geopolitical moment.

Winners: • UAE, can ramp production up near 5m bpd • benefits more from oil price spike now • ADNOC, billions of additional USD revenue • US Shale • Trump administration • OSV owners in Gulf • Iran Losers: • Saudi, Russia, Iraq, WAF producers

Great timing, I wasn't busy at all. #OPEC #OOTT

Why did the UAE leave OPEC? The need to have greater autonomy over oil production levels The country wants to increase output capacity and actually use it, rather than keep production capped, especially after the war ends and Hormuz The UAE is positioning itself as a more

🚩🚩UAE energy minister tells me: “We just want to have the freedom to take the decisions that are required due to the situations that we are living in”

FOMC statement: "Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate." Brent crude futures just hit a nearly four-year high of $119.50.

Southeast Asian economies as the very last question Jay Powell will ever take as Fed chair — what a banger.

The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is]

Critical chart from JPM, and a great point: Just because there is oil in storage doesn't mean it's all available. "A market can still hold hundreds of millions of barrels, and yet become fragile once working stocks fall too low. Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue

For all the talk about oil & gas, Bloomberg's agricultural commodities index is at a one-year high.

As he tells aides to prepare for a long-running blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is wagering that Iran’s export-dependent economy will buckle before the global economy. finance.yahoo.com/markets/articl…

Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House about a deal with Iran as US gas prices average $4.30: "I don't know that we need it. We might need it."

Crazy chart from JPMorgan. We all know the narrative that the US is "energy independent" — but the spike in US gasoline prices over the past 2mo has outpaced everywhere except Southeast Asia, the region most dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf.

UAE MoFA condemn in strongest terms Iranian attacks calling them “a dangerous escalation” , reiterating the right to respond

H/T to Goldman Sachs for explaining the European airline/jet fuel crisis in one chart.

Kalshi responds to @wsj story on prediction markets loss rates with comps showing their users have better loss rates than day traders in Taiwanese stocks between 1995 and 1999, Indian options traders, sports books and traders of Brazilian equity futures.

TRUMP said the Strait of Hormuz "looks like the Long Island Expressway for ships."

EIA, week ending 5/1 Crude oil: -2.3M Domestic prod: 13.573MMbpd Cushing: -0.7M Gasoline: -2.5M Mogas supplied: 8.813MMbpd Distillates: -1.3M Refiner utilz: 90.1% Ref inputs: 16.361MMbpd Total exports: 12.974MMbpd #oil #eia #gas