x.com/i/article/2010…

x.com/i/article/2011…

x.com/i/article/2011…

This account was created 40 minutes ago. He already has a $160k position on a US strike on Iran today. This is the only market he is betting on, does he know something?

Who the f*** is betting on Sarah Knafo? One thing that sparked my curiosity recently (and the curiosity of the small french Polymarket sphere) is the rise of Sarah Knafo in the Paris Mayor election Polymarket. Anyone who knows a bit about french politics knows that she has

Yesterday's price action on the Iranian polymarket showed that spotting insiders is much easier after the fact than before

Matrix glitch: a Polymarket that would mathematically not work. Imagine the market "Will USDC depeg more than 10%?". If the market worked properly, the price would be the probability of the event occuring. Let's call it X. If I buy YES at X, my expected value should be 0$.

Soon, people will do the same to larp as insiders. 1. Fund 4 wallets, take 2 NO positions and 2 YES positions in an Iranian market 2. With the 2 winning wallets, take 1 NO position and 1 YES position on another Iranian market 3. Congratulations, you are now an Iranian insider

x.com/i/article/2012…

X urging users to write clickbait articles

x.com/i/article/2013…

Brian Armstrong has been futarchy pilled by Robin Hanson

Just flipped PhilTsa on the Trendle leaderboard

x.com/i/article/2015…

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been