Collective intelligence goes way deeper than just togetherness. For cognitive scientist E J Servan-Schreiber, it's about how you organize interactions between minds to get a smarter result. (for us, better predictions) Check out softwareinblue's full interview x.com/softwareinblue…

"Collective intelligence is about using other people's stupidity to compensate for your own" Our e=mc² for great crowd forecasting is Scott Page's diversity theorem It shows that while expertise counts, diversity counts AS MUCH to reduce error more: x.com/softwareinblue…

Just added some new forecasting questions on Russia and US politics 👇 predict.hypermind.com

Our probability map for the US election is updated daily with forecasts from of our elite prediction market (not a crypto bro hangout) as well as our new AI Forecasting Machine: tfm.hypermind.com/ai/elections20… We're making elections forecasting great again!

As predicted !

Now this question remains...

A few hrs post-debate, our prediction market has Kamala Harris @ 59% chance of winning, a full 20% ahead of Donald J. Trump. The "real money" markets likely suffer from Trump bias syndrome: Polymarket (49% KH) Manifold (52% KH) Betfair (52% KH) PI (56% KH)

Today, on our prediction market Trump's chances of winning back the White House reached a new low, about 33%. In fact, they are as low as Biden's chances on the day that he dropped out of the race in July.

Our prediction market thinks that Donald J. Trump's chances of winning back the White House (33%) are lower than at the same point in time in 2020 (37%) and 2016 (40%). Kamala Harris Vice President JD Vance is in better position to win than Clinton (pre-Access Hollywood tape) or Biden were.

The 2nd assassination attempt on #Trump has had no impact on his chances to win the election as estimated by our prediction market. This is in stark contrast to the uplift he got from the first attempt. #newnormal ?

In today's Wapo, David Ignatius mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...

Are the "real money" markets out of line?

Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. predict.hypermind.com

It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.

Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. Good Judgment Open Good Judgment Inc Metaculus FiveThirtyEight The Economist Manifold PI Betfair Polymarket Kalshi

Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.

Harris' chances continued to improve overnight. Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg). She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.

Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.

Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.

Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welco… Kiko Llaneras Nuño Sempere