The 538 Swing-O-Matic is an interactive tool that allows you to play around with how different parts of the electorate might vote, altering how much a group prefers one party's candidate, and just how high or low that group's turnout is. trib.al/COCwHCI

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work. trib.al/37sZWOQ

Good morning! 538 is out today with averages of presidential general election polls.

The national polls are currently about tied, with a slight Trump lead that's within our uncertainty interval. Trump is tied or leads in all battleground states.

Story: abcnews.go.com/538/trump-lead…

NEW: 538 has launched our new interactive polling averages for the 2024 presidential election.

They show incumbent Pres. Biden and former Pres. Trump essentially tied in national polls, with Trump holding a tenuous lead in key swing states. trib.al/G5ga9cN

The Keystone State will set the table for a slate of key elections this fall. trib.al/oVotrBU

One of the country's most important battleground states, Pennsylvania, has a primary election on Tuesday.

The state's most high-profile contested primaries will take place in four U.S. House seats. Here's what to watch out for. trib.al/FU4mrlu

One of the country's most important battleground states, Pennsylvania, has a primary election on Tuesday.

The state's most high-profile contested primaries will take place in four U.S. House seats. Here's what to watch out for. trib.al/fLARdYa

One reason that governors are so consistently well-liked across regional and partisan divides is the simple fact that they are not federal officials. That allows them to stay out of the fiery disputes and mudslinging that often roil Washington, D.C. trib.al/rMdm0i1

Monday was the deadline for Senate and House candidates to disclose their fundraising numbers for the first quarter of 2024, and while presidential fundraising numbers aren't due until Saturday, Team Biden and Team Trump have announced numbers already. trib.al/IRpbeBP

Fascinating Geoffrey Skelley chart showing asymmetric polarization. Congress has shed moderate Dems, though lefty Dems are about as liberal as they used to be. But all flavors of Republican have moved strongly rightward. abcnews.go.com/538/claims-uni…

Democrats and Republicans have grown farther apart — and Americans know it. trib.al/sLR9kRB

The far right claims there's a 'uniparty' in Washington.

Reality suggests otherwise. trib.al/bdKLEMQ

In its latest attacks against members of its own party, a faction of conservatives have embraced a term that disparagingly links supposedly apostate Republicans to Democrats across the aisle: 'uniparty.' trib.al/HCUvCZz

🎧 LISTEN: Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. trib.al/EAP7Ikn

How popular is Joe Biden?

An updating calculation of the president's approval rating: trib.al/MLlDZqo

🎧 New pod 🎧

The political stakes of Trump’s first trial

w/ Kaleigh Rogers, Geoffrey Skelley & former 538er Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fiv…

Jury selection began Monday in Donald Trump's New York hush money case, the first of the former president's four criminal trials.

But the polls suggest that a guilty verdict would be unlikely to have a big influence come November. trib.al/yzOb7tA

The Nebraska debate over a single electoral vote exemplifies how today's politics can be a game of inches. trib.al/rE2VZsi

With the Electoral College not going anywhere anytime soon, parties will keep looking to claim every speck of ground they can, and Nebraska's 2nd District is just the latest battleground. trib.al/9YGmv7a

The less you vote, the more you back Trump.

A new poll suggests it's Republicans who should be rooting for higher turnout. trib.al/pcYcHOa