Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot
Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
ID:432122791
https://baseballot.substack.com 09-12-2011 02:16:27
78,5K تغريدات
61,2K متابعون
2,8K التالية
Fascinating Geoffrey Skelley chart showing asymmetric polarization. Congress has shed moderate Dems, though lefty Dems are about as liberal as they used to be. But all flavors of Republican have moved strongly rightward. abcnews.go.com/538/claims-uni…
Shohei Ohtani favorability
April 2024 (change from Dec 2023)
NET FAV: +12 (-5)
Total favorable: 19% (-3)
Total unfavorable: 8% (+3)
4/12-4/14, N=1,029 LV
via Echelon Insights Voter Omnibus
New from James Downs: Takeaways and analysis from Q1 House fundraising reports including a look at how the eight GOP members who voted to oust McCarthy are faring nationaljournal.com/s/724769/ihotl…
FEC reports show that while the Senate battlefield is not in their favor, Democrats have not seen a drop off in campaign contributions and will put up a fight, Kirk A. Bado reports.
Read Hotline's Q1 Senate fundraising roundup here (unlocked):
njour.nl/s/724764/?unlo…
Our Split Ticket poll:
Biden 37/Trump 39/RFK Jr. 11.
Generic ballot D+2 (44D-42R).
What I do find interesting is how different young voters look here: Trump *wins* them despite Democrats leading the generic ballot with young voters, 49-34.
Why? Read:
split-ticket.org/2024/04/15/cha…
From profiling presidential candidates & their supporters on the campaign trail to breaking down how decisions in Washington impact voters, hear from ABC News National Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd (with free pizza!) TODAY at 12pm.
RSVP (HUID req.): ken.sc/pizpol-0411
I have a new FiveThirtyEight piece out, 'The less you vote, the more you back Trump.'
It reports a striking finding from a new NORC survey: more frequent voters are more pro-Biden & less frequent voters are more pro-Trump.
1/2
abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…
News: Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is weighing his exit from the Biden administration — likely after the November election — to run for California governor in 2026.
w/ Dustin Gardiner Adam Cancryn
politico.com/news/2024/04/0…