$AAPL Apple’s % of weight of the 3 major indices: 2.85% of the Dow Jones (18th of 30) 6.53% of the S&P500 (1st of 503) 12.95% of the Nasdaq-100 (1st of 102) So if you wonder why the indices haven’t really crashed crash… well there in lies your answer. 🍎

Those who predicted oil would be down this year are correct (at least as of now) -- but I don't think it took the path they all expected it to. To those forecasting an up year for stocks next year: It's not the end point that's important; it's the path it takes to get there.

Something to think about...

Your 2023 S&P 500 forecasts: Deutsche Bank 4500 Oppenheimer 4400 BMO 4300 JPMorgan 4200 Jefferies 4200 Wells 4200 Evercore 4150 RBC 4100 Credit Suisse 4050 Goldman Sachs 4000 HSBC 4000 Citi 4000 BofA 4000 UBS 3900 Morgan Stanley 3900 Barclays 3725 SocGen 3650 BNP Paribas 3400

🚨 Druckenmiller’s base case for a hard landing and recession in 2023 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝🚨 Articulates why he would be STUNNED if we didn’t have a recession …. 100 sec 📺 MUST watch as the markets are set to open for the first trading day of the year tomorrow. $SPY $QQQ

Chart Of The Week - Emerging Pivot? This one is worth highlighting because of how it relates to the opportunity in EM fixed income, but also from a macro standpoint in terms of what it is saying about the path of monetary policy...

A *very general* rule of thumb that has saved me an immeasurable amount of money is what I call the 75/25 rule In an uptrend (we've been in one since Jan) 75% of my trades should be longs, 25% shorts. Vice versa for downtrends. 90% of good trading is just getting the trend right

Not a great sign for Q4 bears that PPI came in hot and futures are moving higher. The absolute worst case for Q4 bears is if CPI comes in hot tomorrow and equities rally. This would be potentially signaling one of two things. 1) The market is normalizing to the inflation

the risk/reward in duration right now is wild 12-month expected returns for 30-year Treasuries if yields… - rise 50bp: -2.9% - fall 50bp: +13.2%

The whole US high yield market is $1.3 trillion $AAPL is $3 trillion mkt cap This means, from an asset allocator’s perspective, getting $AAPL right is 3x more important than getting the junk bond market right 🥴

The rise in stocks since Nov 1 has mostly been driven by the rise in long-dated bonds. The rise in long-dated bonds has mostly been driven by pricing in 5-6 Fed cuts in '24 plus some term-premium compression. But these moves sow the seeds of divergent pressures ahead. Thread.

The most important stock in China plunged more than -10%. That's one of the most remarkable moves ever for an 800-lb gorilla kind of stock. Picking bottoms in Chinese tech has been nothing but a knee-hammer kind of thing for investors, but Tencent's reaction history is notable.

Nasdaq 100 total (annual) returns: 1999-2011: +14% (~1% per year) 2012-now: +650% (~20% per year) Some thoughts on these types of cycles and how they relate to U.S. vs international stocks: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/03/long-t…

I’m just going to do some very basic (and broad) math here: The 10 year yield at ~4.50% is implying that inflation returns to 2%. That’s the bet you’re taking if you want to own 10s here. Long rates are comprised of 3 components: 1. Inflation 2. Real return 3. Term premium

The S&P 500's market cap got down to $6.1 trillion at the Financial Crisis low in March 2009. The combined market cap of Apple $AAPL and Microsoft $MSFT is now $5.55 trillion.

What an insane chart Carvana is +3,400% since 2023 lows and you'd still be down if you bought anytime in 2021

Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues