I think Shapiro would have been a better pick, potentially removing pt3. But Walz is the safer pick and can be more sure on pt4. With the trends already seen in polling, likely able to exploit Trump regardless, maybe going ultra safe is the right choice.

Yeah I'd say I'm struggling to maintain any sense of hope now.

Part of a global story but America should have been able to look at international comparisons and tell a different story. They failed to do so. While mostly not a candidate issue, I don't see Dems picking a female nominee again for a good while unfortunately.

I assume Canada's immigration page will again be getting a *lot* of traffic, I hope their beefed up servers can handle it. Doesn't mean I expect much increased immigration will actually happen.

Word of the day is ‘recrudescence’ (17th century): the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve.

Well he's certainly got some convictions

You spend months saying "there are thousands of different combinations that could happen!" and then the result is literally the most common one economist.com/interactive/gr…

Yes shut down polling because it was broadly correct and the models build on it suggested this outcome was one of the likeliest... But no we should rely on the entirely soft data which made people think "the polls are wrong Harris will beat them"

This failed me in July... should of made sure I stuck with it better for the US election.

Trump becomes the oldest president ever inaugurated. The first president elected for a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland. The only president re-elected after a successful impeachment, let alone two. The only president to be convicted of a crime, then re-elected.

Polling is the best tool we have, but it is a tool with known and growing problems and those problems really need attention.

Off to a great start.

Can we just get a bit of stability at some time please.

Just to clarify: this isn’t just the first time since WW2 that all incumbent parties in developed countries lost vote share. It’s the first time since this data was first recorded in 1905. Essentially the first time in the history of democracy (universal suffrage began in 1894).

Tim Ryan --> loss Tim Kaine --> loss Tim Walz --> loss Clear message from voters. No more Tims.

My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad!

Changed my handle over at the other place. 🦋 There's enough usage over there that I plan for it to be my primary location to post to.