Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut. Would put the market at 5,200 by May... First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!

GOLD Retail flows were a key sign that the gold rally needed to take a breather before the next leg. Recall how muted GLD inflows were 18 months ago as gold was breaking out compared to the maniacal inflows recently. Charts 3.7.2024 3Fourteen Research vs. 10.16.2025 reports

"Guts of the market" starting to reflect growth concerns...

SEPTEMBER CPI Core CPI +.23% Almost all of the MOM fall is attributable to shelter inflation (see below post). Importantly, Owner's Equivalent Rent lowest monthly print since early-2021. Three major inflationary vectors remain dormant -Oil, -Measured shelter, & -Labor mkt

S&P 500 Is the market overvalued or in a bubble? Contrary to consensus - no. If analysts are correct and margins expand to 15.5% by 2027 (+180 bps), then multiples remain more likely to expand than contract. Less cyclical index composition + higher margins = rising multiples.

One year ago, I discussed the impact of a less cyclical index and higher margins with Charles V Payne Conclusion: There was an easy path for the market to 7k by 2026. If S&P margins expand to 15.5%, then 8k by 27 is highly likely. foxbusiness.com/video/63636066…

This is how oil in transit becomes floating storage. The other ingredient would be steep contango to improve floating storage economics.

New report out to 3FR clients: -A minor October wobble reset sentiment and systematic positioning. -Post-August NFP, though, market internals are flashing growth concerns. -With AI carrying mkt, we unveil real-time GPU pricing analytics to monitor the health of the AI boom.

S&P earnings growth has outpaced inflation 94% of the time post-gfc…equities are debasement hedge

S&P 500 The character of the market really changed following the August jobs report (9/5/25). Despite generally lower yields, since the release: -Consumer cyclicals -6% -AI basket +16% These are the trends underlying the breadth concerns.

A very important, and often under-appreciated point, being made by Warren Pies 👇 Stocks are real assets, offering long-term protection. Wrote this over 2 and half years ago ... carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

A 28% yoy rental price decline actually implies a pretty fat IRR >~30%. And spot prices at AWS/GCP imply a big premium to what this series shows (~50% higher). Most importantly, the A100, a 5yr old GPU, is still in high demand at prices implying less than 28% rent declines.

Fernando did an excellent job of rebutting Chanos below. He made a more in-depth argument in this week's report which shows a 25% rental decline rate = solid IRR. From a client: "Your latest report was breathtakingly good!  It answers the most important question of the day."

Notably these trends really took hold after the last official jobs report. -Yields down, -Cyclicals down, but -AI rips.

I sat down w/ Ryan Detrick, CMT and Sonu Varghese last Friday (link below 45 min mark). We covered: -How I handle twitter fights, -Reviewing our recent calls, -Oil, S&P, Rates, -Bad breadth. Appreciated the conversation. youtube.com/live/0alr4-vDL…

Fantastic insight on $NVDA chip profitably 🔥 3Fourteen research vs. Chanos napkin math

This is what treasuries are pricing today

LABOR MARKET Challenger net hiring for the year is still tracking negative. No year since 2018 has been negative through October and the typical Sept+Oct hiring surge has been weak.

Tariffs/deportations

K-Shaped Economy The Fed has to decide whether it wants to stimulate the "lower-part of the K" (real estate, broad labor, etc.) OR control the mania of the "upper-part of the K" (AI + Ultra-high end consumer). *Spoiler: They will stimulate the lower part of the K.