GS: We Expect Core PCE Inflation to Decline to 2.7% by End-2024 and 2.1% by End-2025

The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the 'multivariate core trend' rate) declined to 2.6% in March from a downwardly revised 2.7% in February (originally 2.9%) and from 3% in January

newyorkfed.org/research/polic…

Millionærklubben: Global økonomi i paradigmeskift? | euroinvestor.dk Podcast - euroinvestor.dk euroinvestor.dk/podcast/millio…

The War Economy overview:
It’s started w Ukraine but now politicians are fully behind it meaning ‘acceleration’ in rhetoric & spend - Tangible asset is still way underpriced to intangibleshigher for longer will run another 2-3 month before reality of stagflation light takes over

Did I eat too much sushi? In respectable distance to another great Money Market Apero, the #SNB increased its #minimum reserve ratio from 2.5 to 4% and ended some exemptions. As those reserves are not renumerated, banks interest earnings will fall by at least 190 mio CHF.

The SNB has raised the reserve requirement for domestic banks, in a move designed to reduce how much it has to pay out to Swiss lenders including UBS trib.al/Z5qIvNH

'The SNB has raised the reserve requirement for domestic banks, in a move designed to reduce how much it has to pay out to Swiss lenders including UBS'

Liquidity is leaving the system

Less liquidity = lower equity prices

#RiskManagement

Here is the full length video report into the mysterious 'Global Disinformation Index' and how it censors political speech across Europe and the US. Please share widely, more people need to know.

Let’s close the evening with Bond Vol 🚀

Good night 🌙

❖ CYBERATTACK REPORTEDLY TARGETS ISRAELI DATA CENTERS

A major cyberattack compromised key information centers in Israel, the country's Haaretz newspaper reported Tuesday.

According to the report, the attackers not only breached the data centers but also created a website to…

My latest macro presentation: The War Economy Paradigm

smallpdf.com/file#s=31f8b44… #smallpdf via Smallpdf

As Wall Street increases pressure on Nvidia to meet their guidance, we can expect to see more loans with chips as collateral first invented by CoreWeave.

I'll share more details about Lambda soon.

Empire manufacturing – worse than expected today, and increasingly questioning the broader recovery in US manufacturing activity.

This post illustrates the mechanics of the April tax drain where hundreds of billions are shifted within the financial system in a brief window. The market impact depends on the size of flows and how it's financed. It should be uneventful this year.

fedguy.com/april-tax-drai…

The Arabica coffee (KCK4) future reached its tech. extension target at $2.3575 on Friday, before dropping 6%, potentially signaling consolidation. Also worth noting speculators held a record 68k lot net long as of last Tuesday

The backwardation in crude oil futures has reached its normal extreme extent. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine brought a larger extreme, but outside of conditions like that, this is about as far as things go. And it is a sign of a top for oil prices.

❖ ISRAEL REPORTEDLY TO HIT BACK 'CLEARLY AND FORCEFULLY'

The Israeli war cabinet has decided to retaliate 'clearly and forcefully' against the missile and drone attack carried out by Iran on Saturday, The Times of Israel reported on Monday citing the local broadcaster Channel…

linkedin.com/posts/activity…

Macro Week-end: Headline inflation is driven by energy prices. This chart has been 'right' for many decades - energy (and its derivative electricity) remains key input to any economic model. WTI up 11% YoY...when will FED face new paradigm of 3% inflation forever?

Macro Week-End: The strong growth myth: US has increased debt by 4,9 tn. USD getting 3,3 tn. USD worth of nominal growth. Bad business?