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Ben Paxton

@DrBenPaxton

Researcher @Instituteforgov, working on the General Election programme. Doctor. Views my own.

calendar_today21-08-2023 09:07:13

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In Jan, Sunak laid out his five pledges and asked the country to judge him on “the results we achieve”

At Institute for Government we've looked at different general election timings + where Sunak might be on his five pledges come the election...

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/next…

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“Halve inflation by the end of 2023”

Forecasts suggest he may meet this pledge – but it's looking very tight. Either way, inflation is forecast to continue falling into 2024...

The longer he waits to call the election, the lower inflation is likely to be at that time

“Halve inflation by the end of 2023” Forecasts suggest he may meet this pledge – but it's looking very tight. Either way, inflation is forecast to continue falling into 2024... The longer he waits to call the election, the lower inflation is likely to be at that time
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“Grow the economy”

The economy has grown and is forecast to continue growing towards an election, but slowly

The longer he waits to call election, the bigger the economy is expected to be (give or take)

“Grow the economy” The economy has grown and is forecast to continue growing towards an election, but slowly The longer he waits to call election, the bigger the economy is expected to be (give or take)
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“Reduce debt”

Sunak didn’t give a time period for this pledge, but it’s likely he was referring to meeting his fiscal rules (debt falling as a share of GDP in 2027/28), which the OBR forecast suggests he will meet (even if 2027/28 is well beyond the current electoral cycle)

“Reduce debt” Sunak didn’t give a time period for this pledge, but it’s likely he was referring to meeting his fiscal rules (debt falling as a share of GDP in 2027/28), which the OBR forecast suggests he will meet (even if 2027/28 is well beyond the current electoral cycle)
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“Cut waiting lists”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies have projected scenarios for the high profile elective waiting list. Their central scenario only shows sustained reductions from July 2024, and if doctors strikes continue then cutting the waiting lists may get even more difficult...

“Cut waiting lists” The @TheIFS have projected scenarios for the high profile elective waiting list. Their central scenario only shows sustained reductions from July 2024, and if doctors strikes continue then cutting the waiting lists may get even more difficult...
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“Stop the boats”

Sunak’s pledge was to pass legislation to stop the boats, which he's done. But crossings remain high. There are no official forecasts, but in 2020-22 crossings varied across the year, peaking just when we'd expect an early autumn election campaign to begin...

“Stop the boats” Sunak’s pledge was to pass legislation to stop the boats, which he's done. But crossings remain high. There are no official forecasts, but in 2020-22 crossings varied across the year, peaking just when we'd expect an early autumn election campaign to begin...
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