In Jan, Sunak laid out his five pledges and asked the country to judge him on “the results we achieve”

At Institute for Government we've looked at different general election timings + where Sunak might be on his five pledges come the election...

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/next…

“Halve inflation by the end of 2023”

Forecasts suggest he may meet this pledge – but it's looking very tight. Either way, inflation is forecast to continue falling into 2024...

The longer he waits to call the election, the lower inflation is likely to be at that time

“Grow the economy”

The economy has grown and is forecast to continue growing towards an election, but slowly

The longer he waits to call election, the bigger the economy is expected to be (give or take)