Worth regularly checking in with Economics Observatory & their new series of election economics newsletters - summary of big policy ideas that week, evidence on those proposed measures to help you evaluate them & election briefing review.

"State support has provided some help, but this is small compared to the overall hit to household finances" 🏘️📉 Arnab Bhattacharjee FRSA unpacks key findings and recommendations from our #GeneralElection living standards briefing 📺🎧 Read the full briefing here 👇 niesr.ac.uk/publications/l…

Depressing debate last night. No openness about tax and spend. Big direct tax rises are nailed in over next 3 years whoever wins, as allowances and thresholds are frozen. Avoiding big spending cuts while keeping to promises on debt will require more tax rises.

Is manufacturing export-led development even possible anymore? (🔗linkedin.com/pulse/export-l…) cc: IMD Simon J. Evenett Simon Lester Beata Javorcik Adam Posen Adam Tooze Soumaya Keynes Alan Beattie OECD Trade ➡ Making Trade Work for All World Bank Research Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) TradeExperettes Hanna C. Norberg

Tax changes have hit highest earners hard, but helped average earners. Benefit cuts have led to big losses for poorer households. Big story of last 14 years is how much changes have hit families with children.

The books are open. Everyone knows exactly the problems a new government will inherit.

Economy is the top priority for voters this election....and with real earnings close to 2010 levels it's not hard to understand why👇 Centre for Public Policy UofG Adam Smith Business School 'Productivity puzzle' looms large as July 4 election looms | The Herald (heraldscotland.com)

Q: How can we have highest taxes in 70 years AND struggling public services AND rising debt? A: Combination of sky high debt interest payments, more spending on health and welfare, and poor growth. ifs.org.uk/articles/tough…

Remarkable fact that a bigger fraction of the over 65s than of working age adults now pay income tax. First time ever that has been true.

This is great news - with some of the best economists I’ve ever worked with, including John Van Reenen and Anna Valero. Serious people joining the government.

🚨 New HM Revenue & Customs figures on Scottish Income tax revenues suggest they performed LESS WELL compared to rUK than previously expected. Scottish Govt set to receive a +ve reconciliation payment next year for 2022-23 of £447m, almost £300m lower than £732m forecast last Dec. [1/5]

Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review Institute for Fiscal Studies The whole evidence volume of the Review, with clickable links to the remarkable set of commissioned articles across the many dimensions of inequality, now published open access by OUP, follow the link at ifs.org.uk/inequality/dir…

Pleased to have been appointed to chair the new Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Labour Market Statistics, providing independent advice to ONS on the uses and application of labour market statistics. uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/the-authority-…

As well as reps from HMT, OBR, BoE, LPC, devolveds, panel brings together independent labour market experts including Nye Cominetti, Xiaowei Xu , alan manning, Tony Wilson, David N.F. Bell, Chaitra Nagaraja.

It would have been nice had orthodox economics been wrong and universal basic incomes raised employment and improved life chances a lot Sadly not openresearchlab.org/findings

My new paper with Alex Bryson and David N.F. Bell out next week NBER shows a big decline in the mental health of the young and especially young women in the UK and especially in Scotland - this is a major crisis and @uklabour needs to address - unclear what to do about it

I like that…

Another great piece from David Phillips on LG finance. The system is broken. Funding allocations have become increasingly random. Last govt failed to fix. Ambitions for devolution depend on fixing funding first.

Delighted to join Prosper's new podcast. Sara Thiam and I spoke about current economic & fiscal challenges but also why we should (and must) be optimistic about Scotland's economic future. They have great guests lined up, so worth tuning in to future episodes.

This is a remarkable collapse in pension participation among the self-employed. Meanwhile auto-enrolment has massively increased participation among employees.